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林业科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (4): 139-149.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20170416

• 问题讨论 • 上一篇    下一篇

国有林区经济增长与资源消耗的伪脱钩风险识别及破解思路

朱震锋, 曹玉昆   

  1. 东北林业大学经济管理学院 哈尔滨 150040
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-08 修回日期:2017-02-08 出版日期:2017-04-25 发布日期:2017-05-26
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY032);黑龙江省科技攻关重点项目(GC14D101);中央高校基本科业务费专项资金项目(2572014AC01)。

Pseudo Decoupling Risk of Economic Growth and Resource Consumption Identifying and Cracking in the National Forestry Area

Zhu Zhenfeng, Cao Yukun   

  1. College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University Harbin 150040
  • Received:2016-11-08 Revised:2017-02-08 Online:2017-04-25 Published:2017-05-26
  • Contact: 曹玉昆

摘要: [目的] 经济增长与资源保护之间的冲突和矛盾是横亘在国有林区可持续发展道路上的主要障碍。通过对经济增长和资源消耗之间伪脱钩风险的实证检验,探寻"天保"工程实施以来国有林区是否实现了经济增长和资源保护的双赢发展,将有助于为全面启动的国有林区改革提供实践参考。[方法] 首先,分别采用Tapio弹性分析法和Kuznets曲线模型实证判定国有林区经济增长与资源消耗之间的脱钩关系;其次,利用对数趋势线方法对脱钩后经济增长和资源保护之间是否存在伪脱钩风险进行有效识别;再次,通过构建国有林区经济发展模型和经济增长模型,探寻伪脱钩风险破解的主导因素和基本思路。[结果] 1)对比Tapio弹性分析和Kuznets曲线模型的脱钩结果,得出国有林区经济增长和资源消耗自2003年起实现脱钩;2)2003-2014年国有林区平均森林覆盖率和GDP增长率的对数趋势线中自变量系数分别为1.394 4和-29.69,二者呈显著的相反变化趋势;3)经济发展模型和增长模型估计结果显示,非木质经济(0.992,1.969)、木材产量(0.257,0.347)及投资(0.078,0.158)是支撑国有林区经济发展和驱动经济增长的主要因素,作用程度依次下降,在岗职工投入对林区经济发展具有消极影响(-0.202),且对经济增长无显著贡献(t=-0.28)。[结论] 1)国有林区经济增长和资源消耗自2003年跨过EMC最高点后实现脱钩,但脱钩后资源保护取得积极成效的同时经济利益严重受损,二者之间存在伪脱钩风险;2)木材资源对林区经济的支撑和驱动效应依然显著,但限于资源管控的政策干预而被严重遮掩,因此经济和资源并未实现真正脱钩,而是处于伪脱钩状态;3)国有林区经济和资源的伪脱钩关系主要源于"天保"政策对森林开发利用的强制干预;4)大力发展非木质经济是停伐转型背景下提升国有林区经济总量和驱动经济增长的优先选择,其次为鼓励和扩大投资以及寻求新的木材供给,再者则是如何有效消除劳动力冗余;5)系统构建了以投资为支撑、以职工为载体、以非木质经济发展为动力、以科技创新为手段,旨在实现国有林区经济和资源双赢发展的伪脱钩风险破解机制。

关键词: 国有林区, 经济增长, 木材资源, 天然林资源保护工程, 脱钩

Abstract: [Objective] The main obstacle lying on the road of sustainable development is the conflict and contradiction between economic growth and resource protection in the national forest area(NFA).Based on the empirical test on the pseudo decoupling risk between economic growth and resource consumption,this current aimed to explore that whether NFA has achieved win-win after years' resource control and transformation or not,with the implement of natural forest protection project(NFPP).[Method] Firstly,the decoupling relationships between economic growth and resource consumption was determined with Tapio elastic analysis and Kuznets curve model in NFA.Secondly, the existence of the pseudo decoupling risk was identified using the logarithmic trend line method.Thirdly, the models of economic development and economic growth were established to explore the main factors and ideas to crack the risk.[Result] 1) Economic growth and resource consumption achieved decoupling from 2003 with the comparative analysis of Tapio elastic model and Kuznets curve model.2) The variable coefficient of logarithmic trend line of average forest cover and GDP growth rate is 1.394 4 and -29.69 from 2003 to 2014,they show the opposite trend.3) Economic development model and growth model's results show that non-wood economy (0.992,1.969),timber yield (0.257,0.347) and investment (0.078,0.158) are the main factors supporting the economic development and driving the economic growth and their contributing extent reduced in turn,the staff (-0.202) has a negative influence on the economic development and has no significant impact on the economic growth (t=-0.28).[Conclusion] 1) The risk of pseudo decoupling caused from 2003 and economic growth suffered serious damage.2) The wood resource still has a significant impact on the forestry region economic development and growth,but the impact is hidden seriously by the resource control policy,and it's pseudo decoupling between the economy growth and resource consumption.3) The risk of pseudo decoupling is one inevitable outcome of forced decoupling under NFPP policy intervention.4) Striving to develop the non-wood economy is the priority selection to increase economic output and drive the economy growth,then it's expanding investment and seeking new timber supply,and trying to eliminating the labor redundancy.5) Building the mechanism of cracking the risk which takes investment as one support,staff as one carrier,non-economy development as force,scientific and technological innovation as measures,it aims to achieve win-win finally.

Key words: national forest area, economic growth, timber resource, natural forest protection project, decoupling

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