关键词: 森林人口承载力, 资源, 环境, 人口, 经济发展, 山东

Abstract: A new concept,forest-population carrying capacity, is defined in this paper. Based on the concept, a research methodology was developed to analyze the correlations between the forest resources and population, and to estimate the capacity of forest to carry population for the different living standards in the different periods of social-economic development using the data available and economic index, representing the four kinds of basical living materials,which included the average timber consumption per capita, fuelwood, fruits and nuts, and environmental index for necessary forested land per capita. The results showed that fruits and nuts would be over produced, family-used wood in shortage to some extent and the environmental quality would be somewhat improved. However,the supply of fuelwood for the rural community would still remain a serious problem. Changes of the forestpopulation carrying capacity will depend on the consumption structure of forest resources.

Key words: Forest-population carrying capacity, Population, Forest resources, Shandong Province