关键词: 林木资源资产, 资产评估, 序列林价, 递推公式, 参照林分, 生产函数

Abstract: [Objective] The Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata) timber forest in Longquan county of Zhejiang Province was taken as an example to establish a scientific and practical model for appraisal of forest resources assets in order to make the model applicable to appraisal of sub-compartment forest resources, such as mortgage of forest rights, forest insurance, accounting of forest biological assets.[Method] A reference stand was set up and a growth model was developed for the reference stands using production function. The relation between forest prices of the adjacent years was analyzed and used to design the recursive formula for calculating the sequential forest prices. Main factors that influence forest asset value were identified and used to develop assets appraisal model for sub-compartment forest resources assets based on the sequential forest prices. Applicability tests were then conducted for the appraisal model, including significance test of difference between estimated and actual values and accuracy test of the estimation. The recursive algorithm, regression method, and simulation method were used in the process of modeling. [Result] A table of the sequential forest prices of the reference stand was compiled, which objectively reflects the rises of forest values. The adjustment coefficient model parameters of the main factors that influence the forest asset value were fitted. Then the adjustment coefficient empirical equation for sub-compartment skidding distance was given. To mature forest sub-compartment, the adjustment coefficient empirical equations for stand average DBH and stand stock volume per unit area were obtained. The appraisal model of forest resources assets was applied to all sub-compartment appraisal of Chinese fir timber forest in Bajiao village, Yanzhang township, Longquan county. As the outcome of this application example, the forest resources assets list of each sub-compartment was calculated by the appraisal model, the total amounts of the forest resources assets for each farmer household and for the whole village were obtained by summarizing up. The test sample of 98 normal trading examples was used to calculate the test index of the appraisal model, total relative error was -0.16%, mean relative error was 1.25%, absolute value of mean relative error was 8.97%, and estimation accuracy was 97.6%. All the test indicators conformed to the requirements. [Conclusion] The forest resources assets appraisal model based on sequential forest prices was structured, intuitive and understandable, and the evaluation result was satisfactory. The assets appraisal model can be applied in forest resources assets appraisal practices of large number of sub-compartment related to non-transaction forest resources assets appraisals. By using the theory of production function, the matching between input and output in the forest management process of the reference stand was ensured. By using recursive formula, the variation rule of the sequential forest prices in the whole stand growth process can be studied better, and the fusion and mutual verification of 3 methods, the replacement cost method, the income method and the market value method, was realized. By using the age value coefficient, the list of the sequential forest prices of the reference stand can be updated, and the sub-compartment forest resources assets appraisal model can be updated synchronously. The regression models of the main influencing factors of forest price were established, and were better than the simple grading method to deal with the influence factors previously.

Key words: Forest resource assets, assets appraisal, sequential forest prices, recursive formula, reference stand, production function