关键词: 杨树细菌溃疡, 生长模型预测, 复循环病害, 管理策略

Abstract:

Application of growth model forecasting method in epidemic forecasting of the poplar bacterial canker was discussed. The result of nonlinear regression analysis was that the Logistic growth model was superior by testing for appropriateness. The accuracy of the model was higher by predicting and examining with the data outside the model, so its practicability was verified. It also showed that this disease was a polycyclic disease, so that appropriate management tactics of disease control and forecasting should be taken.

Key words: Poplar bacterial canker, Growth model forecasting, Polycyclic disease, Management tactics