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›› 1987, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1): 24-28.

• 论文及研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

试用大气环流、海温因子对马尾松毛虫大发生进行长期预报

梁其伟 萧刚柔 李天生   

  1. 中国林业科学研究院林业研所
  • 收稿日期:1986-03-29 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:1987-02-25 发布日期:1987-02-25

THE PREDICTION OF THE OUTBREAK OF THE PINE CATERPILLAR WITH ATMOSPHERICAL CIRCULATION SEA TEMPERATURE AS FACTORS

Liang Qiwei,Xiao Gangrou,Li Tiansheng   

  1. Forest Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry
  • Received:1986-03-29 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:1987-02-25 Published:1987-02-25

摘要: 本文应用逐步判别方法分析108个大气环流,海温因子与湖南省郴州地区马尾松毛虫大发生的关系,并建立了长期预报方程。方程对过去27年进行回报,准确率达96%,对未参加构造方程的最近4年进行预报检验,全部正确。

Abstract: The relationship between 108 factors of atmospherical circulation & sea temperature and the outbreak of the pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus punctatus Walker) over a large region is analysised by stepwise discriminant analysis, and the predicting model is established. The model not only gets 96% accuracy in back-prediction but also a correct prediction for the recent four years.