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›› 1986, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 360-367.

• 论文及研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

几种数学方法在马尾松毛虫预测预报上的应用研究

梁其伟 萧刚柔   

  1. 中国林业科学研究院林业研究所
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:1986-11-25 发布日期:1986-11-25

THE APPLICATION OF THREE KINDS OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE PREDICTION OF THE OUTBREAK OF PINE CATERPILLAR

Liang Qiwei,Xiao Gangrou   

  1. Forest Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:1986-11-25 Published:1986-11-25

摘要: 本文应用:1.逐步判别(可自行从诸多因子中挑选出与马尾松毛虫种群变动相关的因子);2.模糊优先比(可将新一年的因子与过去年份相比,以最相似年的虫情做为新一年的预报);3.数字滤波(可将种群观测值中非主导部份滤除,保留主导部份做预报)三种数学方法,对马尾松毛虫预测预报进行研究。这三种方法各有特点,适用于不同情况。本文研究以广西钦州为例,对4年预报结果,逐步判别全部正确,模糊优先比3年正确,数字滤波趋势正确。

Abstract: Three kinds of mathematical methods are applied to forecasting the outbreak of pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus punctatus Walker). They are stepwise discriminant analysis, fuzzy preference and figure filtering. Each of these methods has its advantage and fits into difference conditions. The application takes Qinzhou County in Guangxi autonomous region as example and good results are achieved.