关键词: 中华斑羚, 种群生存力分析, 漩涡模型, 敏感度分析, 保护措施

Abstract: [Objective] This research aimed to provide reference for the protection of the isolated wildlife population of Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus) by using the Population Viability Analysis (PVA).[Method] The updated Vortex package was used to make a simulation analysis on population viability of a closed Chinese goral group based on 10 years field monitoring data on the Chinese goral population at Inner Mongolia Saihanwala nature reserve. The simulation referred to the data of population size, mating system, environmental capacity, genetic diversity, catastrophes frequency, and information collected from other populations of the goral species.[Result] The result indicated that the survival probability of this population would be 0.33 in the next 100 years if no translocation occurred. Additionally, sex ratio at birth, mortality of infant females and the mortality of adult females would seemingly play crucial roles in determining persistence by the sensitivity analysis. If a translocation (supplementation with one female and one male adult every three years) can be ensured, the Chinese goral population in the study area will grow steadily, without risk of extinction.[Conclusion] Population viability for this isolated Chinese goral group is not optimistic. A supplementation by extra goral individuals would be the most effective measure for stable population growth. Supplementation of feedings and nutrient salt in harsh winter is also an important measure to improve individual survival and breeding conditions in maintaining present population.

Key words: Chinese goral, PVA, Vortex model, sensitivity analysis, conservation strategy