Comprehensive Abatement Effects of Energy Conservation, Emission Reduction and Forest Conservation: Based on DICE Model
Liu Shi1,Jie Zhang2,Ying Shen3
1. School of Economics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology Changsha 410004 2. School of Economics, Jinan University Guangzhou 510632 3. School of Finance, Hunan University of Technology and Business Changsha 410004
Liu Shi,Jie Zhang,Ying Shen. Comprehensive Abatement Effects of Energy Conservation, Emission Reduction and Forest Conservation: Based on DICE Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(10): 57-67.
对2010年气候政策的延续Current policies as of 2010 are extended indefinitely
最优情景 Optimal
综合减排 Comprehensive abatement(CA)
从2015年开始,所有国家都参与节能减排和森林保护(ηt≠0)以实现社会福利净现值最大化Participation(ηt≠0)by all nations starting in 2015 and without climatic constraints
直接减排Direct abatement(DA)
从2015年开始,所有国家都参与节能减排,但不采取森林保护(ηt=0),社会福利净现值最大化Climate-change policies maximize economic welfare, with full participation in direct abatement but no participation in indirect abatement(ηt=0)by all nations starting in 2015 and without climatic constraints
2 ℃情景 2 ℃ target
综合减排 Comprehensive abatement(CA)
在最优情景(综合减排)下,全球地表平均升温不超过2 ℃(较之1900年) The optimal policies(CA) are undertaken subject to a further constraint that global temperature does not exceed 2 ℃ above the 1900 average
直接减排Direct abatement(DA)
在最优情景(直接减排)下,全球地表平均升温不超过2 ℃(较之1900年) The optimal policies(only DA) are undertaken subject to a further constraint that global temperature does not exceed 2℃ above the 1900 average
1.5 ℃情景 1.5 ℃ target
综合减排 Comprehensive abatement(CA)
在最优情景(综合减排)下,全球地表平均升温不超过1.5 ℃(较之1900年) The global average temperature is higher than the pre-industrial level within 1.5 ℃ under optimal scenario(CA)
直接减排Direct abatement(DA)
在最优情景(直接减排)下,全球地表平均升温不超过1.5 ℃(较之1900年) The global average temperature is higher than the pre-industrial level within 1.5 ℃ under optimal scenario(only DA)
Table 1
Table 2
Welfare, benefits and costs of comprehensive abatement and comparison with direct abatement"
情景 Scenarios
类型 Types
社会福利净现值NPV of social welfare
应对气候变化总成本净现值 NPV of total costs to tackle climate change
总减排成本净现值 NPV of total abatement costs
损害净现值 NPV of climatic damages
收益-成本比 Benefit-cost ratio
基准情景Baseline
2 668.21
87.39
0.17
87.22
—
最优情景Optimal
综合减排CA
2 689.73
73.51
19.93
53.58
1.70
直接减排DA
2 689.18
74.68
19.82
54.87
1.65
2 ℃情景2 ℃ target
综合减排CA
2 673.37
77.04
50.40
26.64
1.21
直接减排DA
2 670.78
78.79
52.11
26.68
1.17
1.5 ℃情景1.5 ℃ target
综合减排CA
2 639.13
85.85
69.62
16.23
1.02
直接减排DA
2 626.32
89.21
73.29
15.92
0.98
Table 2
Table 3
Atmospheric carbon concentration, average rise on surface temperature, peak of carbon emissions and it's time"
情景Scenarios
类型Types
大气碳浓度 MATt /(mg·m-3)
地表平均升温幅度 TATt /℃
总碳排放 Et/GTC
工业碳排放 EINDt/GTC
累积工业碳排放 Accumulated EINDt /GTC
峰值 Peak
年份 Year
峰值 Peak
年份 Year
峰值 Peak
年份 Year
峰值 Peak
年份 Year
峰值 Peak
年份 Year
基准情景Baseline
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
最优情景Optimal
综合减排CA
308.01
2100
3.31
2130
46.22
2055
46.52
2055
1 167.22
2125
直接减排DA
310.80
2100
3.35
2130
46.88
2055
46.44
2055
1 169.04
2125
2 ℃情景2 ℃ target
综合减排CA
231.45
2050
2
2100
28.81
2025
28.96
2025
457.69
2140
直接减排DA
231.52
2050
2
2100
29.56
2020
27.69
2025
418.68
2140
1.5 ℃情景1.5 ℃ target
综合减排CA
205.49
2130
1.5
2100
—
—
—
—
217.39
2155
直接减排DA
204.03
2125
1.5
2115
—
—
—
—
167.56
2155
Table 3
Fig.1
Energy conservation, emission reduction and forest conservation under comprehensive abatement"
Fig.1
Fig.2
Carbon price and social carbon cost under comprehensive abatement"
Fig.2
Table 4
Robustness analysis of optimal scenario (comprehensive abatement)"
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