气候变化背景下松材线虫在中国分布的时空变化预测

Abstract

Abstract: Pine wood nematodes damage pine forest resources and cause seriously economic losses. The disease transmission and spread are closely related to climate change. This study analyzed and predicted the suitable scope of pine wood nematodes with climate simulation and geographic information system, which is of great significance for prediction of epidemic disaster in different regions, accurate risk assessment of the harm in China, and provides scientific theory basis for its quarantine and control. Based on the MIROC_RegCM model, 130 years (1971-2100) climate data in China were simulated under the global climate change scenario A1B. According to the thresholds of six key weather and natural geographical factors which play predominant roles in constraint of pine wilt disease distribution, 11 geographic patterns of potential distribution region of pine wilt disease in China were generated by means of comprehensive assessment of data with fuzzy mathematics, geographical information system (GIS) and geostatistics. During the period of 1971-2100, the extremely suitable area increases from 148.17 to 243.08 ten thousands km², the suitable area has increased from 72.16 to 189.00 ten thousands km², and the unsuitable area and very unsuitable area reduce from 165.14 to 110.13 ten thousands km² and from 498.89 to 287.33 ten thousands km², respectively. There is a trend that the potential suitable distribution area of pine wood nematode is mainly concentrated in the south of the north latitude 37°. With the further climate change at large scale, potential distribution are suitable to pine wood nematode would expand to north and west; mildly suitable area would expand to the north latitude 43°, such as central Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hebei, Qinghai, and Gansu; The edge distribution area would extend to the north latitude 46°, such as the north of Xinjiang, northeast of Inner Mongolia, and the south of Jilin. However the north of Jilin, Heilongjiang, large parts of Tibet are too cold and drought to be suitable to pine wood nematode.

Key words: Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, potential distribution, MIROC_RegCM, GIS

CLC Number:

S763

Cheng Gong, Lv Quan, Feng Yiming, Li Yongxia, Wang Yanli, Zhang Xingyao. Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Pattern of Pine Wilt Disease Distribution in China Predicted under Climate Change Scenario[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2015, 51(6): 119-126.

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Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Pattern of Pine Wilt Disease Distribution in China Predicted under Climate Change Scenario

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