Abstract:

Based on the studies of geographical distribution of dovetree, a GIS, named INDRISI, and designed software of ecological information system GREEN, were applied in this paper to find the climate parameter suitable for dovetree growth, from which the natural distribution scope of dovetree was defined. Furthermore, according to the prediction of climate change in 2030 by GCM s, the possible effects of climate changes on the distribution of dovetree were predicted. It suggests that the geographical distribution of dovetree will change in 2030 with 0°18′～1°18′ longitude moving toward west in the east boundary and 0°18′～1°54′ longitude toward east in the southeast part of west boundary and no changes in the south and north boundary. By 2030, the area of dovetree will decrease 20% compared to nowdays. The effect of climate changes on dovetree was further discussed according to its biological characteristics and adaptation to climate changes.

Key words: Davidia involucrata, Geographical distribution, Geographical information system(GLS), Ecological information system(GREEN)