Abstract:

On the basis of survey materials from 38 sample plots, the author regarded the basal area of breast height ratio of saplings and young trees under the mother trees as the transition probobility, predicated not only the composition of tree species on balance status, but also the dynamic process and trends of survived forest community in Daqinggou in longer periods and larger scales through the data comparison between present and 30 years ago, by means of the Markov succession model. The results show, if the environmental conditions keeping smoothly, the community which Quercus mongolica, Fraxinus mandshurica are main species are more stable, while the community which Ulmus macrocarpa is main species fluctuated greatly. The quantitative correlation of species composition in different communities in balance stutus will be changed variously.

Key words: Forest community, Succession prediction, Daqinggou