Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 1998, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 123-128.
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Xiaoguang Liu,Kexiang Gao
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Abstract:
Application of growth model forecasting method in epidemic forecasting of the poplar bacterial canker was discussed. The result of nonlinear regression analysis was that the Logistic growth model was superior by testing for appropriateness. The accuracy of the model was higher by predicting and examining with the data outside the model, so its practicability was verified. It also showed that this disease was a polycyclic disease, so that appropriate management tactics of disease control and forecasting should be taken.
Key words: Poplar bacterial canker, Growth model forecasting, Polycyclic disease, Management tactics
Xiaoguang Liu,Kexiang Gao. APPLICATION OF GROWTH MODEL FORECASTING METHOD TO EPIDEMIC FORECASTING OF THE POPLAR BACTERIAL CANKER[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 1998, 34(4): 123-128.
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Table 1
Rated scale for disease severity of poplar bacterial canker"
Table 2
Investigation data in the forecasting plots of Zhaodong"
Table 3
Results of non-linear regression analysis on the disease index in the plot No.1 with the time"
Table 4
Results of non-linear regression analysis on the disease index in the plot No.2 with the time"
Fig.1
Disease progress curve of plot No.1"
Fig.2
Disease progress curve of plot No.2"
Table 5
Results of forecasting and examination of the disease growth model of plot No.1"
Table 6
Results of forecasting and examination of the disease growth model of plot No.2"
