2060年前我国森林生物量碳库及碳汇潜力预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20220204

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: Prediction of the potential of carbon pool and carbon sink by China's forest biomass before 2060 is carried out in order to provide an important basis for the study and development policies on emission reduction and sink enhancement, it is of significant implications for China to allow necessary CO₂ emissions and negotiations on global climate change. Method: Based on the data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI), eight to nine major dominant tree species (groups) were selected by region to fit the Richards growth equation, the relationship between volume per hectare and age of each dominant species (group) was established by dividing China into six regions. Using China's forest management plans to project forest area by period, the forest timber volume and biomass carbon pool and carbon sink potential (excluding economic forests and bamboo forests) are estimated in China by 2060. Results: By 2030, forest timber volume will reach 20 473 million m³, an increase of 7 473 million m³ compared with 2005, and by 2060, it will reach 28 645 million m³. In view of the dynamic changes in each region, the southwest and southeast regions are the places with the fastest growth of forest timber volume in China in the future, and the areas with the greatest potential for precise improvement of forest quality, accounting for 37.68% and 21.37% of the national forest timber volume in 2060 respectively. By 2060, the existing forest carbon stocks will reach 12.12 Pg C and new plantations will add another 0.92 Pg C; the total forest biomass carbon pool will reach 13.04 Pg C, an increase of 5.47 Pg C compared to 7.57 Pg C in 2018. The forest carbon density will reach 63.96 Mg C·hm^-2 in the same period. Conclusion: Given that China's forests are currently dominated by middle- and young-aged forests and the forest area is still increasing, the carbon pool and carbon sink capacity of China's forest biomass will continue to grow in the next 40 years, with average annual increase in forest carbon sink up to 0.13 Pg C·a^-1. This indicates that China's forests have a large potential for carbon sinks. For this reason, it is necessary to further strengthen the protection and management of forest resources, reduce forest carbon losses and continue to promote large-scale greening of the national territory, in order to maintain and enhance the carbon sink capacity of China's forests and help achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality".

Key words: National Forest Inventory (NFI), age of forest, forest volume, biomass carbon sinks pool, carbon density

CLC Number:

S750

Xiao Fu,Yuxing Zhang,Xuejun Wang. Prediction of Forest Biomass Carbon Pool and Carbon Sink Potential in China before 2060[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2022, 58(2): 32-41.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Parameters for fitting Richards curves for major tree species(group) in China"

区域 Regions	树种(组) Trees(group)	a	b	c	样地数量 Number of sample plot	相关系数 Model correlation coefficient (r)
东北 Northeast China (NE)	落叶松Larix spp.	100.921	2.176	0.072	1 022	0.739
	其他针叶树Other coniferous trees	284.550	1.622	0.014	437	0.819
	栎类Quercus	171.960	2.029	0.032	1 067	0.776
	白桦Betula platyphylla	156.917	2.302	0.026	593	0.746
	其他阔叶树Other broadleaf trees	204.535	1.326	0.019	1 905	0.701
	针叶混交类Mixed coniferous species	224.047	2.311	0.031	176	0.814
	针阔混交类Mixed coniferous and broadleaf species	236.051	1.629	0.019	3 379	0.738
华北 North China (NC)	落叶松Larix spp.	117.890	2.189	0.044	1 037	0.612
	油松Pinus tabulaeformis	207.730	1.745	0.014	732	0.743
	其他针叶树Other coniferous trees	102.044	0.288	0.001	311	0.591
	栎类Quercus	193.586	1.208	0.008	1 123	0.649
	桦木Betula	173.604	1.587	0.020	878	0.661
	杨树Populus	55.553	2.319	0.177	885	0.628
	其他阔叶树Other broadleaf trees	205.419	1.175	0.009	1 919	0.665
	针阔混交类Mixed coniferous and broadleaf species	200.447	0.931	0.006	220	0.680
西北 Northwest China (NW)	落叶松Larix spp.	293.610	1.498	0.012	134	0.767
	云杉Picea asperata	331.677	1.395	0.010	581	0.621
	其他针叶树Other coniferous trees	105.319	1.888	0.035	1 185	0.488
	栎类Quercus	135.739	0.939	0.179	712	0.520
	杨树Populus	107.418	1.120	0.033	306	0.500
	其他阔叶树Other broadleaf trees	133.516	1.317	0.016	1 079	0.702
	阔叶混交类Mixed broadleaf species	120.323	1.947	0.040	1 379	0.675
	针阔混交类Mixed coniferous and broadleaf species	146.221	1.364	0.023	404	0.659
中南 South Central China (SC)	马尾松Pinus massoniana	151.518	1.579	0.029	939	0.616
	杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata	149.544	1.786	0.056	1 007	0.693
	其他针叶树Other coniferous trees	73.352	0.981	0.036	689	0.558
	栎类Quercus	154.610	1.575	0.029	804	0.721
	杨树Populus	92.694	2.466	0.210	1 666	0.673
	其他阔叶树Other broadleaf trees	115.412	1.205	0.031	1 026	0.603
	针叶混交类Mixed coniferous species	126.878	1.578	0.046	484	0.624
	阔叶混交类Mixed broadleaf species	475.254	1.134	0.007	2 944	0.670
	针阔混交类Mixed coniferous and broadleaf species	216.571	1.101	0.015	1 083	0.615
东南沿海 Southeast Coastal China (SE)	马尾松Pinus massoniana	142.338	1.752	0.039	917	0.641
	杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata	183.207	1.355	0.037	1 523	0.580
	其他针叶树Other coniferous trees	161.892	1.252	0.031	280	0.602
	栎类Quercus	265.696	2.028	0.031	241	0.704
	桉树Eucalyptus	70.355	2.713	0.457	865	0.658
	其他阔叶树Other broadleaf trees	269.405	1.218	0.016	489	0.655
	针叶混交类Mixed coniferous species	266.060	1.656	0.025	614	0.657
	阔叶混交类Mixed broadleaf species	320.261	1.644	0.022	3 302	0.742
	针阔混交类Mixed coniferous and broadleaf species	286.927	1.502	0.021	1 121	0.735
西南Southwest China (SW)	冷杉Abies fabri	395.017	2.092	0.020	686	0.533
	云南松Pinus yunnanensis	172.713	1.731	0.030	778	0.578
	马尾松Pinus massoniana	176.927	2.045	0.045	386	0.740
	杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata	123.337	3.352	0.140	483	0.759
	其他针叶树Other coniferous trees	465.204	0.857	0.004	1 709	0.647
	栎类Quercus	267.122	1.185	0.011	828	0.712
	其他阔叶树Other broadleaf trees	492.465	0.837	0.034	1 043	0.653
	针叶混交类Mixed coniferous species	513.458	1.123	0.008	257	0.678
	阔叶混交类Mixed broadleaf species	259.759	1.315	0.019	1 928	0.724
	针阔混交类Mixed coniferous and broadleaf species	375.539	1.246	0.012	677	0.740

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

New arbor forest area in 31 provinces(regions or cities) before 2060"

省(区、市) Province (region or city)	2014年乔木林面积 Arbor forest area in 2014/ (×10⁴ hm²)	2018年乔木林面积 Arbor forest area in 2018/ (×10⁴ hm²)	2014—2018年间净增面积 Net area increase between 2014-2018/ (×10⁴ hm²)	新增乔木林面积占全国总新增面积的比例 Proportion of new arbor forest area to total new area(%)	新增乔木林面积 Area of new arbor forestation/ (×10⁴ hm²)
省(区、市) Province (region or city)	2014年乔木林面积 Arbor forest area in 2014/ (×10⁴ hm²)	2018年乔木林面积 Arbor forest area in 2018/ (×10⁴ hm²)			2020	2025	2030	2035
合计Total	16 460.4	17 988.9	1 528.5	100	61.6	758.9	791.1	791.0
北京Beijing	42.9	62.2	19.3	1.26	0.8	9.6	10.0	10.0
天津Tianjin	7.5	10.3	2.8	0.18	0.1	1.4	1.4	1.4
河北Hebei	311.0	365.4	54.4	3.56	2.2	27.0	28.1	28.2
山西Shanxi	210.5	244.4	33.9	2.22	1.4	16.8	17.6	17.6
内蒙古Neimenggu	1 713.1	1 756.2	43.1	2.82	1.7	21.4	22.3	22.3
辽宁Liaoning	389.6	425.6	36.0	2.35	1.4	17.8	18.6	18.6
吉林Jilin	753.4	774.6	21.2	1.39	0.9	10.5	11.0	11.0
黑龙江Heilongjiang	1 949.7	1 984.4	34.7	2.27	1.4	17.2	18.0	18.0
上海Shanghai	4.4	7.2	2.8	0.19	0.1	1.4	1.5	1.5
江苏Jiangsu	125.2	126.8	1.6	0.10	0.1	0.8	0.8	0.8
浙江Zhejiang	410.1	426.9	16.8	1.10	0.7	8.3	8.7	8.7
安徽Anhui	291.7	308.7	17.0	1.11	0.7	8.4	8.8	8.8
福建Fujian	606.7	621.4	14.7	0.96	0.6	7.3	7.6	7.6
江西Jiangxi	789.9	808.5	18.6	1.21	0.7	9.2	9.6	9.6
山东Shandong	161.4	152.7	-8.7	-0.57	-0.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5
河南Henan	305.4	348.3	42.9	2.81	1.7	21.3	22.2	22.2
湖北Hubei	572.4	606.7	34.3	2.24	1.4	17.0	17.7	17.7
湖南Hunan	731.4	798.9	67.5	4.42	2.7	33.5	35.0	35.0
广东Guangdong	714.8	781.0	66.2	4.33	2.7	32.9	34.3	34.2
广西Guangxi	904.1	1 050.1	146	9.55	5.9	72.5	75.5	75.5
海南Hainan	97.1	173.4	76.3	4.99	3.1	37.9	39.5	39.5
重庆Chongqing	210.9	245.9	35	2.29	1.4	17.4	18.1	18.1
四川Sichuan	1183.8	1 332.4	148.6	9.73	6	73.8	77.0	76.9
贵州Guizhou	478.7	585.4	106.7	6.98	4.3	53	55.2	55.2
云南Yunnan	1527	1 862.9	335.9	21.98	13.5	166.8	173.8	173.8
西藏Xizang	848.5	883.7	35.2	2.3	1.4	17.5	18.2	18.2
陕西Shannxi	639.3	707.1	67.8	4.44	2.7	33.7	35.1	35.1
甘肃Gansu	247.2	263.9	16.7	1.09	0.7	8.3	8.6	8.6
青海Qinghai	37.9	42.1	4.2	0.28	0.2	2.1	2.2	2.2
宁夏Ningxia	15.9	17.3	1.4	0.1	0.1	0.8	0.8	0.8
新疆Xinjiang	179.2	214.8	35.6	2.33	1.4	17.7	18.4	18.4

Table 3

Table 4

Fig.1

Table 5

Fig.2

Table 6

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年份Year	森林覆盖率 Forest coverage(%)	森林总面积 Total forest area/ (×10⁴hm²)	乔木林面积 Area of arbor forests/ (×10⁴ hm²)	新增乔木林面积 Area of new arbor forests/ (×10⁴ hm²)
2018	22.96	21 829	17 988.9
2020	23.04	21 906	18 050.5	61.6
2025	24	22 827	18 809.4	758.9
2030	25	23 787	19 600.5	791.1
2035	26	24 747	20 391.5	791.0
2040	26	24 747	20 391.5
2045	26	24 747	20 391.5
2050	26	24 747	20 391.5
2055	26	24 747	20 391.5
2060	26	24 747	20 391.5

区域 Region	主要造林树种(面积比例) Main tree species (proportion of area)	BEF
东北NE	落叶松Larix spp. (56%)、杨树Populus(44%)	0.920
华北NC	油松Pinus tabulaeformis(33%)、杨树Populus(67%)	0.997
西北NW	针叶混交类Mixed coniferous species(22%)、阔叶混交类Broadleaf trees mix(78%)	0.944
中南SC	杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata(43%)、杨树Populus(57%)	1.100
东南SE	杉木C. lanceolata(47%)、桉树Eucalyptus(53%)	1.012
西南SW	杉木C. lanceolata(56%)、阔叶混交类Broadleaf trees mix(44%)	0.774
全国CH	—	0.900

区域Region	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050	2055	2060
东北NE	32.46	34.76	36.93	39.00	40.97	42.82	44.53	46.11	47.54
华北NC	17.59	18.65	19.67	20.74	21.83	22.82	23.65	24.39	25.06
西北NW	11.81	12.4	12.93	13.47	14.04	14.61	15.16	15.67	16.14
中南SC	13.84	16.25	18.35	20.42	22.46	24.29	25.88	27.29	28.57
东南SE	28.02	33.04	37.87	42.74	47.52	51.55	55.10	58.32	61.22
西南SW	69.22	74.18	78.99	84.23	89.91	95.49	100.34	104.42	107.93
全国CH	172.94	189.29	204.73	220.60	236.73	251.59	264.67	276.20	286.45

年份Year	现有森林 Existing forests		新造林 New forestation		总计 Total
年份Year	碳库 Carbon pools/ (Pg C)	碳密度 Carbon density/ (Mg C·hm^-2)	碳库 Carbon pools/ (Pg C)	碳密度 Carbon density/ (Mg C ·hm^-2)	碳库 Carbon pools/ (Pg C)	碳密度 Carbon density/ (Mg C ·hm^-2)
2018	7.57	42.11			7.57	42.11
2020	7.78	43.26	0.00	0.73	7.78	43.12
2025	8.54	47.49	0.01	1.62	8.55	45.46
2030	9.20	51.13	0.07	4.47	9.27	47.30
2035	9.80	54.47	0.21	8.82	10.01	49.09
2040	10.35	57.51	0.41	17.02	10.76	52.74
2045	10.85	60.31	0.59	24.47	11.44	56.09
2050	11.31	62.89	0.73	30.22	12.04	59.03
2055	11.74	65.24	0.83	34.67	12.57	61.64
2060	12.12	67.40	0.92	38.21	13.04	63.96

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Prediction of Forest Biomass Carbon Pool and Carbon Sink Potential in China before 2060

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