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Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (5): 184-194.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210518

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Potential for Afforestation in the Three-North Region Where Implements Shelter-Belt Forest Program

Danni Zhang,Xiya Chen,Chuanfu Zang*   

  1. School of Geography, South China Normal University Guangzhou 510631
  • Received:2019-02-11 Online:2021-05-25 Published:2021-07-09
  • Contact: Chuanfu Zang

Abstract:

Objective: This study was designed to analyze afforestation potential of the areas where implements the Three-North Shelter-belt Forest Program (TNSP). Potential areas available for afforestation and their spatial distribution will be obtained, aiming to provide a theoretical basis for building green "Belt and Road", ecological protection in the Three-North Region and the construction of shelter-belt forests consistent with local conditions. Method: A suitability evaluation model was established with 5 indicators, including soil type, land use type, aridity, altitude and slope degree. Indicator's threshold was determined based on conditions required for tree growth and divided by limit condition method. Arc-Gis Analyst Tools were applied to evaluate the afforestation potential with every single indicators, and the spatial distribution of potential areas available for afforestation. Based on the single indicators assessments, an integrated assessment was carried out to obtain future afforestation potential. Meanwhile, the maximum entropy model was applied to predict areas suitable for afforestation in the region of implementing TNSP, which will be compared with the integrated assessment. Result: The single-factor assessments showed that the maximum limiting factor was the aridity. According to the integrated assessment, the area suitable for afforestation may reach 584 600 km2, accounting for 17.52% of the total land area. The afforestation area will be concentrated in the northwest, east and southeast of the TNSP region. The accuracy of the maximum entropy model is higher than 0.8, at a good level. It shows that the probability of being suitable afforestation area is mostly contributed by Land Use Type. By removing the existing forests from the model assessment, the area suitable for future arbor forests is 1 109 400 km2 while the area for shrub forests is 1 441 100 km2, covering 33.24% and 43.19% of the total area of TNSP, respectively. Conclusion: The suitable afforestation area is concentrated in the Tianshan, Altay Mountains and the Junggar Basin in the northwest, and the area to the east of the Inner Mongolia and Ordos Plateau. The distribution pattern of suitable afforestation area on the edge of basin is strip-shaped by topography and the melting snow and ice. Affected by the farmland and pasture, the suitable afforestation area is fragmented in the east and south. Overall, the distribution of suitable afforestation area is mainly affected by agriculture and pasture in the east, by the aridity in the central and by aridity and altitudes in the west.

Key words: suitability assessment model, three-north region, shelter-belt forest, maximum entropy models

CLC Number: