昆嵛山区欲植赤松林地赤枯病病基指数预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20201210

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: In order to avoid planting Pinus densiflora(Japanese red pine, JRP) in the woodland which is potentially seriously damaged by JRP blight(Pestalotiopsis funerea), the disease based index(DBI)-site factors evaluation system was established to quantitatively predict the degree of potential pathogen infection of JRP needle blight in the forest land to be planted. Methods: The disease based index of each sample plot was found based on the DBI curve group graph of JRP needle blight. Through correlation analysis, the key site factors were selected, the relationship equations between DBI-all site factors and DBI-key site factors of JRP needle blight were established by using the quantificative theory I. Results: 1) Correlation analysis showed that elevation, soil texture and humus depth had an extremely significant influence on disease based index(P < 0.01), slope aspect had significant influence on disease based index(P < 0.05), and the order of contribution to disease based index was slope aspect < soil texture < elevation < humus depth. 2) The multiple linear regression model of all site factors, key site factors and disease based index reached the extremely significant level statistically(P < 0.01), and the determination coefficient(R²) was 0.710 0 and 0.678 0, respectively, indicating that the model had a good fitting effect, and 4 key site factors could be used to replace all site factors as the independent variables of the equation. 3) A field test on model (2) (DBI-key site factors) showed that the average estimation error(MPE) was 8.73%, indicating that the estimation accuracy is above 91.27%. the TRE value is close to 0, thus the model is reliable. Conclusion: Disease based index-site factors evaluation system can quantitatively predict potential infection of JRP needle blight, which can provide theoretical basis for optimum planting and prevention of JRP needle blight.

Key words: Pinus densiflora, pine needle blight, disease based index, pure plantation, Kunyushan Mountains

CLC Number:

S718

Ruirui Hu,Jun Liang,Xian Xie,Jiming Che,Xiaowen Yuan,Yingjun Zhang,Xingyao Zhang. Prediction Disease Based Index of Needle Blight Disease (Pestalotiopsis funerea) in Pinus densiflora Pure Forest in Kunyushan Mountains[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(12): 83-90.

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项目Item	代号 Code	类目等级Category hierarchy
项目Item	代号 Code	1	2	3	4
坡形Slope form	x₁	平直Straight	凹Concave	凸Convex	复合Complex
坡向Slope aspect	x₂	阳坡Sunny	半阴坡Semi-shady	半阳坡Semi-sunny	阴坡Shady
坡位Slope position	x₃	下Down	中Middle	上Up
土壤质地Soil texture	x₄	壤土Loamy	砂壤土Sandy loam	砂土Sandy	黏土Clay
海拔Elevation/m	x₅
坡度Slope degree/(°)	x₆
土层厚度Soil depth/cm	x₇
腐土厚Humus depth/cm	x₈

病基指数 DBI	海拔 Elevation/m	坡度 Slope degree/(°)	土层厚度 Soil depth/cm	腐殖质层厚度 Humus depth/cm	坡形 Slope forms	坡向 Slope aspect	坡位 Slope position	土壤质地 Soil texture
平方和 Sum of squares(SS)	4 604.667	76.072	1916	5 025.385	97.612	1 086.884	876.660	1 905.586
F	34.095	0.563	0.014	37.210	0.241	3.246	2.683	4.703
P	< 0.01	0.453	0.901	< 0.01	0.862	0.040	0.050	< 0.01

项目 Item	类目 Category	得分 Score	T	P
坡形 Slope form (x₁)	平直Straight	-2.345	-0.817	0.416
	凸Convex	-0.897	-0.239	0.812
	凹Concave	-0.224	-0.135	0.893
	复合Complex	0.000
坡向 Aspect (x₂)	阴坡Shady	9.461	2.334	0.021
	半阴坡Semi-shady	6.461	1.970	0.049
	半阳坡 Semi-sunny	1.689	0.670	0.504
	阳坡Sunny	0.000
坡位 Slope position (x₃)	下Down	-6.034	-2.278	0.025
	中Middle	-4.912	-1.870	0.064
	上Up	0.000
土壤质地 Soil texture(x₄)	壤土Loamy	-15.058	-5.267	< 0.001
	砂壤土Sandy loam	-14.001	-4.819	< 0.001
	砂土Sandy	-13.728	-4.301	< 0.001
	黏土Clay	0.000
海拔Elevation(x₅)		-0.053	-5.697	< 0.001
坡度Slope degree(x₆)		0.074	0.737	0.462
土层厚度Soil dapth(x₇)		-0.009	-0.500	0.618
腐殖质层厚度 Humus depth(x₈)		-1.679	-6.273	< 0.001
截距Intercept		80.720	13.247	<0.001

项目 Item	类目 Category	得分 Score	T	P
截距Intercept		77.055	17.431	< 0.001
坡向 Aspect (x₂)	阴坡Shady	9.081	2.290	0.053
	半阴坡Semi-shady	6.425	2.015	0.046
	半阳坡Semi-sunny	1.689	0.797	0.427
	阳坡Sunny	0.000
土壤质地 Soil texture(x₄)	壤土Loamy	-15.031	-5.595	< 0.001
	砂壤土Sandy loam	-14.868	-4.961	< 0.001
	砂土Sandy	-14.125	-4.595	< 0.001
	黏土Clay	0.000
海拔Elevation(x₅)		-0.052	-5.759	< 0.001
腐殖质层厚度 Humus depth(x₈)		-1.605	-6.243	< 0.001

模型Model	评价指标Evaluation index
模型Model	R	P	R²	RMSE
(1)	0.842 6	< 0.01	0.710 0	8.529 4
(2)	0.823 4	< 0.01	0.678 0	10.685 4

Prediction Disease Based Index of Needle Blight Disease (Pestalotiopsis funerea) in Pinus densiflora Pure Forest in Kunyushan Mountains

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序号No.	实测等级 True grade	预测等级 Predicted grade	是否正确 Correct or not
1	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
2	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	否No
3	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
4	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
5	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
6	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
7	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
8	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
9	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
10	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
11	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
12	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
13	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
14	Ⅳ	Ⅳ	是Yes
15	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
16	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
17	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
18	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
19	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
20	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	是Yes
21	Ⅴ	Ⅳ	否No
22	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	是Yes
23	Ⅴ	Ⅳ	否No
24	Ⅳ	Ⅲ	否No
正确率(%)		83.33
R²		0.664 0
RMSE		11.293 2
MAE		9.735 0
TRE(%)		-1.40
MPE(%)		8.73

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