浙江省数字经济与林业产业融合发展水平测度及影响因素

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230477

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 分析浙江省11个地级市数字经济与林业产业融合（简称数林融合）发展水平、空间分布特征、构成要素及其外部影响因素，明确数林融合机制，为推动中国林业产业高质量发展提供科学依据。方法: 从数字基础设置、数字业务规模、数字技术创新3个维度构建数字经济发展水平评价指标体系，从规模、结构、效率3个维度构建林业产业发展水平指标体系，基于2015—2021年浙江省11个地级市的面板数据，采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、莫兰指数空间分析等方法，对数林融合发展水平、时间演变、区域差异和空间分布进行测度，构建面板数据模型探究影响浙江省数林融合发展水平的主要因素。结果: 1）浙江省11个地级市数林融合发展水平较低，且存在逐年下降趋势；2）浙江省大部分地级市数林融合发展水平空间分布差异明显，各地级市存在负向或正向相关性特征；3）农村居民每百户计算机数量和农村居民每百户移动电话数量与数林融合发展水平关联度最强；4）地区人均生产总值和交通便利度对推动数林融合发展水平具有显著负向作用，数字经济指数对数林融合发展水平具有显著正向作用。结论: 2015—2021年浙江省11个地级市数林融合发展水平呈逐年下降趋势，且其空间变化特征不显著，数字经济各构成要素和外部因素在不同方向和程度上影响数林融合发展水平。因浙江省需要高度重视数林融合发展，率先打造全国数字赋能林业产业高质量发展示范高地。

关键词: 数字经济, 林业产业, 融合发展, 浙江

Abstract:

Objective: By studying the level of integrated development of digital economy and forestry industry in 11 prefectural-level cities in Zhejiang Province, its spatial distribution characteristics, components and their external influencing factors, the integration mechanism of digital economy and forestry industry could be clarified to provide scientific basis for promoting the high-quality development of forestry industry in China. Method: The evaluation index system of development level of digital economy is constructed from three dimensions of digital infrastructure, digital business scale, and digital technology innovation, and the index system of forestry industry development level is constructed from three dimensions of scale, structure, and efficiency. The panel data of 11 prefectural-level cities in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2021 is collected, and the entropy method, the coupled coordination model, the spatial analysis of the Moran index are applied to measure the integrated development level of the digital economy and the forestry industry, time evolution, regional differences and spatial distribution, and the panel data model is constructed to explore the main external factors affecting the development level. Result: 1) The integrated development level of digital economy and forestry industry in 11 prefectural level cities in Zhejiang Province is relatively low, and there is an annual declining trend. 2) The spatial distribution of the integrated development level in most prefectural level cities in Zhejiang Province varies significantly, and there are negative or positive correlation characteristics in neighboring prefectural level cities. 3) The number of computers per 100 households of rural residents and the number of owned mobile telephones per 100 rural residents have the strongest correlation with the integrated development level. 4) Regional per capita GDP and traffic convenience have a significant negative effect on promoting the integrated development of digital economy and forestry industry, and the digital economy index has a significant positive effect on the integrated development level. Conclusion: The integrated development level of digital economy and forestry industry in 11 prefectural level cities in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2021 shows a downward trend with no obvious spatial variations characteristics, and the various components of the digital economy and external factors affect the integration development level of digital economy and forestry industry in different directions and degrees. Therefore, Zhejiang Province needs to attach great importance to the integrated development of digital economy and forestry industry, and take the lead in creating a demonstration highland for high-quality development of the forestry industry empowered by digitization.

Key words: digital economy, forestry industry, integrated development, Zhejiang

中图分类号:

S7-9
F603

翟郡,杨红强,徐彩瑶,孔凡斌. 浙江省数字经济与林业产业融合发展水平测度及影响因素[J]. 林业科学, 2024, 60(5): 22-34.

Jun Zhai,Hongqiang Yang,Caiyao Xu,Fanbin Kong. Measurement and Influencing Factors of the Level of Integrated Development of Digital Economy and Forestry Industry in Zhejiang Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2024, 60(5): 22-34.

图/表 7

图1

表1

数林融合发展评价指标体系"

一级指标 Primary indicator	二级指标 Secondary indicator	三级指标 Third level indicator	属性 Attribute	权重 Weight
数字经济发展水平 Development level of digital economy	数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	农村居民每百户计算机数量 Computers per 100 households in rural areas	+	0.096 4
	数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	农村居民每百户移动电话数量 Mobile phones per 100 households in rural areas	+	0.037 0
	数字业务规模 Digital business scale	邮电业务总收入） Total revenue from postal and telecommunications business	+	0.240 3
	数字业务规模 Digital business scale	信息传输、软件和技术服务业人员占私营和非私营单位总就业人员的比例 Proportion of personnel in the information transmission, software, and technology service industries to the total employment of private and non-private units	+	0.340 1
	数字技术创新 Digital technology innovation	地方财政科学技术支出占财政预算的比例 Proportion of local fiscal science and technology expenditure to the fiscal budget	+	0.054 1
	数字技术创新 Digital technology innovation	科学研究和技术服务业人员占私营和非私营单位总就业人员的比例 Proportion of scientific research and technology service industry personnel to the total employment of private and non-private units	+	0.232 2
林业产业发展水平 Development level of forestry industry	规模 Scale	林业产业总产值 Total output value of forestry industry	+	0.273 9
	规模 Scale	第一产业固定资产总额 Total fixed assets of the primary industry	+	0.160 0
	结构 Structure	林业总产值占农林牧渔总产值的比例 Proportion of total forestry output value to total agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery output value	+	0.148 2
	结构 Structure	第一产业占固定资产的比例 Proportion of the primary industry to fixed assets	+	0.192 9
	效率 Efficiency	林业总产值同比上年增长比例 Growth rate of total forestry output year-on-year	+	0.038 0
	效率 Efficiency	第一产业固定资产投资同比上年增长比例 Growth rate of fixed assets investment in the primary industry year-on-year	+	0.187 0

表1

图2

表3

表4

表5

表6

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地级市 Prefectural-level city	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
杭州 Hangzhou	0.502 1	0.538 4	0.549 6	0.550 9	0.538 6	0.599 3	0.610 1
宁波 Ningbo	0.546 7	0.615 2	0.403 6	0.375 5	0.403 4	0.401 7	0.387 7
温州 Wenzhou	0.490 4	0.491 0	0.465 3	0.362 0	0.373 7	0.375 3	0.407 8
嘉兴 Jiaxing	0.400 2	0.417 8	0.377 7	0.357 7	0.339 8	0.402 0	0.366 4
湖州 Huzhou	0.432 7	0.454 5	0.463 2	0.462 0	0.464 0	0.486 0	0.459 8
绍兴 Shaoxing	0.475 6	0.498 1	0.506 2	0.476 3	0.492 7	0.505 2	0.481 2
金华 Jinhua	0.344 4	0.365 5	0.365 7	0.345 0	0.349 1	0.428 9	0.361 7
衢州 Quzhou	0.460 1	0.461 4	0.457 1	0.414 8	0.476 6	0.419 9	0.403 1
舟山 Zhoushan	0.245 7	0.255 6	0.379 9	0.311 4	0.337 8	0.209 8	0.270 3
台州 Taizhou	0.329 7	0.368 9	0.356 0	0.329 4	0.355 7	0.347 4	0.354 1
丽水 Lishui	0.486 2	0.505 4	0.491 7	0.465 8	0.459 9	0.463 1	0.418 5

年份 Year	LH	HH	HL	LL	不显著Not significant
2015	台州、舟山 Taizhou，Zhoushan				杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、衢州、丽水Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Quzhou, Lishui
2016	台州、舟山 Taizhou，Zhoushan				杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、金华、衢州、丽水Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Quzhou, Lishui
2017	金华Jinhua				杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、衢州、台州、舟山、丽水Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou, Taizhou, Zhoushan, Lishui
2018	金华Jinhua				杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、衢州、台州、舟山、丽水Hanghzou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou, Taizhou, Zhoushan, Lishui
2019	金华Jinhua				杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、衢州、台州、舟山、丽水Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou, Taizhou, Zhoushan, Lishui
2020		杭州、金华 Hangzhou, Jinhua			宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、衢州、台州、舟山、丽水Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou, Taizhou, Zhoushan, Lishui
2021	金华Jinhua				杭州、宁波、温州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、衢州、台州、舟山、丽水 Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou, Taizhou, Zhoushan, Lishui

地级市 Prefectural-level city	农村居民每百户计算机数量 Computers number per 100 households in rural areas	农村居民每百户移动电话数量 Mobile phones number per 100 households in rural areas	邮电业务总收入 Total revenue from postal and telecommunications business	信息传输、软件和技术服务业人员占私营和非私营单位总就业人员的比例 Proportion of personnel in the information transmission, software, and technology service industries to the total employment of private and non-private units	地方财政科学技术支出占财政预算的比例 Proportion of local fiscal science and technology expenditure to the fiscal budget	科学研究和技术服务业人员占私营和非私营单位总就业人员的比例 Proportion of scientific research and technology service industry personnel to the total employment of private and non-private units
杭州 Hangzhou	0.891	0.953	0.565	0.658	0.922	0.883
宁波 Ningbo	0.880	0.851	0.584	0.754	0.745	0.811
温州 Wenzhou	0.908	0.814	0.694	0.720	0.784	0.869
嘉兴 Jiaxing	0.956	0.857	0.795	0.575	0.847	0.636
湖州 Huzhou	0.888	0.920	0.836	0.887	0.818	0.649
绍兴 Shaoxing	0.891	0.815	0.841	0.713	0.822	0.646
金华 Jinhua	0.584	0.863	0.783	0.715	0.803	0.722
衢州Quzhou	0.952	0.915	0.702	0.859	0.851	0.903
舟山 Zhoushan	0.683	0.641	0.606	0.659	0.631	0.634
台州 Taizhou	0.852	0.846	0.768	0.802	0.599	0.572
丽水 Lishui	0.990	0.989	0.952	0.982	0.464	0.965

变量 Variables	系数 Coefficient	t值 t value	$ P > \left\|{{{t}}}\right\| $
$ \mathrm{lnGDP}_{it} $	?1.31***	?4.28	0.000
$ \mathrm{lnTRA}_{it} $	?1.58**	?2.40	0.019
$ \mathrm{lnDIG}_{it} $	1.29***	4.05	0.000
$ {\mathrm{lnFD}}{{\mathrm{I}}}_{it} $	0.03	1.44	0.155

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