丹江口库区产水量时空动态与情景模拟

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20201102

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 采用InVEST模型和情景分析法研究丹江口库区产水量时空动态，为库区水源涵养能力提升与调控提供科学依据。方法: 以丹江口市域范围为研究区，应用InVEST模型定量研究2003、2013和2018年的产水量时空动态变化特征，分析不同土地利用/覆被类型下的产水深度变化，运用情景模拟法探讨年降水量和土地利用/覆被类型变化对产水量的影响。结果: 丹江口市2003—2018年产水量表现出先减弱后增强的趋势，其中2003年产水深度310.09 mm、产水量13.6亿m³，2013年产水深度146.67 mm、产水量5.25亿m³，2018年产水深度166.06 mm、产水量7.28亿m³，15年间产水量降低46.47%；单位面积产水量在空间上分布不均匀，北部丘陵山区高出南部39.84%~57.79%；各土地利用/覆被类型产水深度呈先减小后缓升的趋势，其中产水深度最高的是建设用地（530.35 mm），其次分别为耕地（292.85 mm）、园地（284.07 mm）和林地（273.76 mm）；情景模拟结果表明，年降水量和土地利用/覆被类型是影响产水量的主要因素，2013年产水量中年降水量贡献率为92.43%，土地利用/覆被类型变化对2018年产水量贡献率为64.71%。结论: 可利用InVEST模型监测库区产水量的时空动态变化，密切关注降水量和土地利用/覆被类型变化对产水量的影响，进而为库区水源涵养能力提升提供科学依据。

关键词: InVEST模型, 产水量, 情景模拟, 丹江口市, 水源涵养

Abstract:

Objective: The InVEST model and scenario analysis were used to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of water yield in Danjiangkou reservoir area, in order to provide a scientific basis for the improvement and control of water conservation capacity in the reservoir area. Method: The InVEST model was used to quantitatively study the changes of temporal of water yield in 2003, 2013, and 2018. The changes of water yield depth under different land use/cover types were analyzed and compared. The effects of annual precipitation and land use/cover type changes on water yield were investigated by scenario simulation method. Result: The annual water yield of Danjiangkou from 2003 to 2018 showed a trend of a weakening followed by a strengthening, including the annual water yield depth of 310.09 mm and water yield of 1.36 billion m³ in 2003, the annual water yield depth of 146.67 mm and water yield of 525 million m³ in 2013, and the annual water yield depth of 166.06 mm and water yield of 728 million m³ in 2018, which decreased by 46.47% in 15 years. On the whole, the water yield per unit area is not evenly distributed in space. The northern hilly and mountainous areas are 39.84%-57.79% higher than the southern ones. The water yield depth of each land use/cover type showed a trend of a decrease followed by a slow increase. The highest water yield depth was urbanized land (530.35 mm), followed by cropland (292.85 mm), orangery (284.07 mm) and woodland (273.76 mm). Scenario simulation shows that annual precipitation and land use/cover type are the main factors affecting water yield. The contribution rate of precipitation in 2013 was 92.43%, and the change of land use/cover type contributes 64.71% to 2018. Conclusion: The InVEST model can be used to monitor the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of water yield in the reservoir area, and pay close attention to the influence of precipitation and land use/cover type changes on water yield, therefore providing a scientific basis for the improvement of water conservation capacity in the reservoir area.

Key words: InVEST model, water yield, scenario simulation, Danjiangkou City, water source conservation

中图分类号:

S719
Q148

张建,雷刚,漆良华. 丹江口库区产水量时空动态与情景模拟[J]. 林业科学, 2020, 56(11): 12-20.

Jian Zhang,Gang Lei,Lianghua Qi. Temporal and Spatial Dynamics and Scenario Simulation of Water Yield in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(11): 12-20.

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年份Year	W_O/10⁸ m³	W_L/10⁸ m³	W_C/10⁸ m³	W_T/10⁸ m³	ΔW_C/10⁸ m³	ΔW_L/10⁸ m³
2013	5.25	5.68	10.5	-5.68	-5.25	-0.43
2018	7.28	9.7	8.6	-3.74	-1.32	-2.42

年份Year	项目 Item	水域 Water area	林地 Woodland	耕地 Cropland	园地 Orangery	建设用地 Urbanized land	未利用地 Barren land
2003	面积Area/hm²	17 101	127 153	52 277	85 409	19 400	10 240
	比例Proportion(%)	5.49	40.81	16.78	27.41	6.23	3.28
2013	面积Area/hm²	23 188	151 753	41 694	65 765	18 448	10 732
	比例Proportion(%)	7.44	48.70	13.38	21.11	5.92	3.45
2018	面积Area/hm²	27 617	158 413	36 600	56 043	21 953	10 954
	比例Proportion(%)	8.86	50.84	11.75	17.99	7.04	3.52

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