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林业科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 148-161.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20200817

• 问题讨论 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同贫困程度农户退耕还林的收入效应

潘丹1,陆雨1,孔凡斌2,*   

  1. 1. 江西财经大学经济学院 南昌 330013
    2. 浙江农林大学经济管理学院 浙江省重点培育智库——浙江省乡村振兴研究院 杭州 311300
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-09 出版日期:2020-08-25 发布日期:2020-09-15
  • 通讯作者: 孔凡斌
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(18AJY006);江西财经大学2019年度学生科研课题(xskt19447)

Effects of Grain for Green Project on the Income of Households at Different Poverty Levels

Dan Pan1,Yu Lu1,Fanbin Kong2,*   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics Nanchang 330013
    2. Zhejiang Province Key Cultivating Think Tank-Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University Hangzhou 311300
  • Received:2020-03-09 Online:2020-08-25 Published:2020-09-15
  • Contact: Fanbin Kong

摘要:

目的: 剖析退耕还林工程对不同贫困程度农户收入的影响效应,探究退耕还林工程能否有效提高不同贫困程度退耕农户收入以及缓解退耕地区农村贫困状况,明确该工程对退耕农户收入效应的影响机制,为探索建立退耕还林工程减贫长效机制提供科学依据。方法: 基于2013年中国家庭收入调查数据,剔除城镇住户、流动人口样本以及未实施退耕还林工程省份后保留7 150户农村住户样本,采用内生转换回归模型(ESR)构建"反事实"分析框架,分别估计参与退耕还林工程对不同贫困程度农户收入的平均处理效应,用以检验退耕还林工程能否有效提升退耕农户收入水平,基于收入类型进一步剖析工程对不同贫困程度农户收入影响的直接效应和间接效应,以明确工程对退耕农户收入效应的影响机制。结果: 基于反事实假设,从家庭整体收入水平来看,参与退耕显著增加了一般贫困退耕农户和重度贫困退耕农户的人均可支配收入水平,且重度贫困退耕农户的增收效应更明显;退耕还林工程对农户收入的直接效应表现为,与未参与退耕的反事实相比,参与退耕的重度贫困农户的人均转移性收入和人均经营性收入分别增加15.9%和18.6%;退耕还林工程对不同贫困程度农户收入的间接效应表现为,非贫困农户、一般贫困农户和重度贫困农户的人均工资性收入分别提高了4.0%、7.9%和24.6%。结论: 退耕还林工程可增加一般贫困农户和重度贫困农户收入水平。其中,通过人均转移性收入和人均经营性收入对重度贫困农户收入有直接影响;通过人均工资性收入对不同贫困程度农户均有正向间接影响,且随着贫困程度的加深,间接效应越大。因此,对不同贫困程度退耕农户实施差异化补贴政策和非农生产就业的知识技能培训能更有效利用工程资金,可为实现工程增收和减贫目标及建立减贫长效机制提供思路借鉴。

关键词: 退耕还林工程, 农户收入, 缓解贫困, 内生转换模型, 平均处理效应

Abstract:

Objective: The direct and indirect effects of the Grain for Green project on the income of households at different poverty levels were analyzed to explore whether the project can effectively improve the income of households at different poverty levels and alleviate rural poverty in the project area,and to understand the mechanisms that the project influences household income,in order to provide a scientific basis for a long-term mechanism of ecological poverty reduction by the project. Method: Based on the survey data of Chinese household income in 2013, excluding samples of urban household and migrant population,and provinces where the project was not implemented,a sample of 7 150 rural households was retained and an endogenous switching regression model (ESR) was used to construct the "counter factual" analytical framework. The average treatment effect of participation in the land conversion project on the household income of farmers at different poverty levels was estimated respectively to test whether the land conversion project can effectively improve the income level of households who made land conversion. Based on the type of income,the direct and indirect effects were further analyzed of the project on the household income of farmers with different levels of poverty,therefore clarifying the mechanisms the impacts of the land conversion project on the income of households who made the land conversion. Result: Based on counterfactual assumptions,in terms of overall household income,participating in the conversion project significantly increased the family income level of general poor farmers and severely poor farmers,and the income increase of severely poor households was more obvious; The direct effect of the project on household income was shown as follows:compared to the counter factual,the per capita transfer income and per capita operating income of severely poor peasant households participating in land conversion increased by 15.9% and 18.6% respectively; The indirect effects of the project on the income of households at different poverty levels were shown as follows:the per capita wage income of non-poor households,general poor households and severely poor households increased by 4.0%,7.9% and 24.6% respectively. Conclusion: The project has increased the family income of general poor farmers and severely poor farmers. Among them,per capita transfer income and per capita operating income have a direct impact on the family income of severely poor farmers. Per capita wage income has a positive indirect effect on households at different poverty levels,and as poverty deepens,the indirect effect grows. Therefore,the implementation of policies for differentiated subsidies for households at different poverty levels and training on knowledge and skills for employment in non-agricultural production can make more effective and rational use of the project funds. It provides a useful idea for the project to achieve the goal of income increase and poverty alleviation,and to establish a long-term mechanism for poverty alleviation.

Key words: Grain for Green Project, household income, poverty alleviation, endogenous switching regression model, average treatment effect

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