关键词: 森林碳汇, 企业减排需求, 定价机制, Benitez模型, 方向性距离函数, 罗宾斯泰因模型

Abstract:

Objective: By revealing the demand price formation mechanisms and policy influencing factors for the purchase of forest carbon sequestration by emission reduction enterprises, the government will regulate and standardize the price trend of the forest carbon exchange market. It also ensures that the forest carbon sequestration price will be used to effectively guide the allocation of resources to the stakeholders and plays an increasingly important role for providing the basis. Method: It is based on directional distance function to calculate the average unit carbon emission reduction cost of 19 enterprises with 589 energy saving and emission reduction units in Shanghai thermal power industry in 3 consecutive years. Meanwhile, it's based on Benitez model to calculate the annual average unit carbon sequestration cost of the 20-year carbon sequestration project of Chinese fir plantation in Zhejiang Province. On this basis, considering various policy factors, this article uses Rubinstein model to analyze the forest carbon sequestration pricing mechanisms based on enterprises' demand for carbon emission reduction. Result: The average marginal abatement cost of thermal power plants in Shanghai was 312.66 yuan·t^-1, and the annual average unit carbon sequestration cost of the 20-year carbon sequestration project of Chinese fir plantation in Zhejiang Province was 217.24 yuan·t^-1. Based on the market trading environment and policy conditions currently assumed, the equilibrium price of the forest carbon market should be 234.5 yuan·t^-1. At the same time, the simulation analysis of the sensitivity of the forest carbon market equilibrium price to changes in the model parameters shows that:if the deduction rate increases from 5% to 15% when forest carbon sequestration does not exceed the company's baseline annual emissions, the equilibrium price of the forest carbon market will increase from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 269.1 yuan·t^-1; when the carbon tax rate rises from 1% to 5%, the equilibrium price will increase from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 303.7 yuan·t^-1; when the corporate social responsibility coefficient will increase from 0.55 to 0.95, the equilibrium price will drop from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 227.3 yuan·t^-1; when the buyer's market concentration of the emission reduction company increases from 1/19 to 1, the equilibrium price will drop from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 218.1 yuan·t^-1. Conclusion: The result shows that the changes of deduction proportion when the total amount of forest carbon sequestration is less than enterprises' standard annual carbon emission amount, carbon tax rate, corporate social responsibility coefficient and buyer's market concentration of carbon emission reduction enterprises are sensitive to the market equilibrium price of forest carbon sequestration. This conclusion not only provides a new approach for carbon emission reduction enterprises and forest carbon sequestration suppliers to take market measures and set the market price of forest carbon sequestration, but also presents a new method for the government to effectively implement ecological compensation policy within the framework of market.

Key words: forest carbon sequestration, enterprises' demand for carbon emission reduction, pricing mechanism, Benitez model, directional distance function, Rubinstein model