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林业科学 ›› 2004, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 165-169.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20040629

• 问题讨论 • 上一篇    下一篇

原料基地的战略价值研究——期权定价模型的应用

肖平 张敏新   

  1. 南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037
  • 收稿日期:2003-06-26 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2004-11-25 发布日期:2004-11-25

Study on the Strategic Value of Materials Base ——an Option Model Applied

Xiao Ping,Zhang Minxin   

  1. College of Economic and Management, Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing210037
  • Received:2003-06-26 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2004-11-25 Published:2004-11-25

摘要:

在市场风险下,加工企业控制一定比例的原料供应,相当于购买了一种期权,这种期权对林工联合体有着不可忽视的战略价值,它可大大减少加工企业的市场风险暴露。本文应用期权定价模型对这种战略价值进行定量研究,敏感分析表明:当木材市场价格水平、长期资本利率水平越高,木材价格波动率越大,加工企业拥有原料基地的战略价值越大。期权定价模型的应用为正确认识原料基地的战略价值,分析木材限额采伐政策等提供了良好的基础。

关键词: 林工一体化, 柔性期权, 战略价值, 原料基地, 市场风险

Abstract:

If a process enterprise exposed to market risk can control a proportion of materials supply, it means it buy an option that the enterprise can choose supply channels from the it’s base and markets. This kind of option value to an alliance of wood process and plantation. The paper quantifies the strategic value by the option model. Sensitivity analysis shows the higher timber price, long-term capital interest fluctuation, and the more freedom of felling, the bigger expected value of timber forests. This apply of the option model offers a good foundation to understand the strategic value of materials base, and analyze the felling quota policy.

Key words: Alliance of wood process and plantation, Flexibility option, Strategic value, Materials base, Market risk