关键词: 林业有害生物, 时空特征, 自然气候因素, 经济社会因素, 本土林业有害生物, 入侵林业有害生物

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of forestry pest occurrence in China (1992—2022), and examine the multiscale impacts of natural climatic and socioeconomic factors on pest dynamics, providing a theoretical basis for prevention and control strategies. Method: Based on the occurrence area of forest pests in 31 provinces of mainland China from 1992 to 2022, STEM clustering analysis was used to classify the occurrence characteristics of the provinces. Combined with natural climatic factors and socioeconomic factors, the random forest, Pearson correlation, and coupling coordination degree models were employed to systematically analyze the influencing factors of forestry pest occurrence at multiple scales. Result: 1) From 1992 to 2022, forestry pest occurrence area in China showed an overall increasing trend. Temporally, plant diseases exhibited the most rapid growth after 2018, and spatially, the 31 provinces demonstrated 3 categories comprising 11 distinct growth models. 2) At the national scale, railway density, expressway density, temperature, and seedling production showed statistically significant importance (P<0.05) in driving forestry pest incidence changes. Temporally, all seven factors exhibited significant correlations with forestry pest incidence (P<0.05). Spatially, however, only railway density, expressway density and per capita GDP were significantly correlated with forestry pest incidence (P<0.05). 3) At the provincial scale, the coupling coordination degree between temperature and precipitation and forestry pest incidence was relatively low in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan, while significantly higher in Shandong, Tianjin, and Shanghai. The coupling coordination degree between railway density, expressway density and forest pest occurrence was significantly higher in eastern regions including Shandong, Tianjin, and Shanghai compared to western regions such as Yunnan, Qinghai, and Xizang. 4) Further analysis was conducted to characterize the differential impacts of natural climatic and socioeconomic factors on native and invasive forestry pest incidence. Native forestry pest incidence showed higher prevalence in northern regions, demonstrating significant negative correlation with precipitation (P<0.05) but positive correlation with railway density (P<0.05). Invasive forestry pest incidence was higher in coastal areas, exhibiting highly significant positive correlations with both railway density (P<0.001) and expressway density (P<0.01). Conclusion: From 1992 to 2022, forestry pest occurrence area in China has an overall increasing trend temporally and displays multiple variation models spatially. At national and provincial scales, there are significant differences in the relative importance, correlation, and coupling coordination degree of natural climatic and socioeconomic factors on forestry pest incidence. There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of the incidence of native and invasive forestry pests and their correlation characteristics with various factors. Based on these multi-scale analysis results, a multi-level prevention and control system should be constructed, including factor-level prioritization, spatiotemporal synergy controls, regionalized prevention, and differentiated strategies for native versus invasive forest pests.

Key words: forestry pests, spatial and temporal characteristics, natural climatic factors, economic and social factors, invasive forestry pests, native forestry pests