生态脆弱地区林业全要素生产率变动及其影响因素——基于甘肃省10年500个农户的跟踪调查

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20220883

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 在生态文明建设背景下，研究欠发达生态脆弱地区林业全要素生产率变动及其影响因素，从林业投入资源配置、生产经营规模调整等方面探讨提高林业全要素生产率的可行路径，为生态脆弱与经济贫困叠加的同类高山集体林区加快转变林业发展方式、制定促进林业高质量发展相关政策提供科学依据和理论支撑。方法: 基于甘肃省2009—2018年500个农户跟踪调查数据，以资金、土地和劳动为投入要素，经济、生态和社会效益为产出要素构建DEA-Malmquist模型，从户主特征、家庭特征、林地特征、区位特征、林业政策和林业服务6个维度选取13个变量构建面板Tobit模型，测算甘肃省林业全要素生产率并分析其影响因素。结果: 1）从整体变动上看，林业全要素生产率增长不足，原因在于各分量未形成合力，具体为林业全要素生产率增长受技术进步驱动，而技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率促进作用有限。2）从时间特征上看，林业全要素生产率处于不稳定状态（2010—2018年呈上下交替波动特征），未能实现林业生产力的持续发展。3）从区域特征上看，因各地区自然历史条件和经济社会发展差异，林业全要素生产率地区差异明显。分区域来看，陇东地区林业全要素生产率增长不足，陇南地区增长有限，陇中地区增长较快；分县域来看，陇南地区各县域差异较大，陇中地区次之，陇东地区最小。4）从影响因素上看，林业全要素生产率受年龄、担任干部、外出务工人数、林业收入与总收入占比、林道满足需要、地理区位、采伐指标申请难易、获得林业补贴、参与森林保险、林权抵押贷款难易以及参与林业合作社影响。结论: 1）重视林业理论基础研究并不断应用转化林业科技成果，依靠科技进步保障林业持续发展；2）强化林业培训措施，提高林业技术效率，注重林业技术效应，转变林业发展方式；3）加大林业融资供给，引导林地规范流转，健全林业社会化服务体系，提高林业规模效率，实现林业规模经济；4）持续改进技术进步，逐步提升技术效率，充分挖掘规模潜力，使生产率各分量形成合力，合理有效配置林业生产要素；5）各地林业发展应全面考虑自身林业资源禀赋特殊性、生态安全必要性和艰巨性，提供精准扶持政策，因地制宜发展林业，加强区域交流合作，促进区域共同发展。

关键词: 生态脆弱地区, 林业, 全要素生产率, 影响因素

Abstract:

Objective: Against the backdrop of ecological civilization construction, changes and influencing factors of total factor productivity of forestry in underdeveloped and ecologically vulnerable areas were studied. The feasible paths to improve the total factor productivity of forestry were explored from the forestry resource investment and allocation, the production and operation scale adjustment and other perspectives. Thus, it provided scientific basis and theoretical support to accelerate in transforming forestry development mode and formulating the policies that contribute to the high-quality forestry development in homogeneous alpine collective forest area where ecological vulnerability and economic poverty overlap. Method: A DEA-Malmquist model was established with fund, land and labor as input factors and economic, ecological and social benefits as output factors on the basis of the tracking investigation data of 500 peasant households in Gansu Province from 2009 to 2018. A panel Tobit model was constructed by selecting 13 variables out of 6 dimensions comprising householder characteristics, family characteristics, woodland characteristics, location characteristics, forestry policies and forestry services. Thus, the total factor productivity of forestry in Gansu Province was measured and calculated and its influencing factors were analyzed. Result: 1) From the perspective of holistic change, the growth in total factor productivity of forestry is insufficient, and the reason is that each component has not developed into synergy. Specifically, the growth in total factor productivity of forestry is driven by technology advancement while technological efficiency, pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency have presented only limited promotion effects. 2) From the perspective of temporal characteristics, the total factor productivity of forestry is in an unstable state (presenting alternating up-and-down fluctuations from 2010 to 2018) and a sustainable development in forestry productivity remains unfulfilled. 3) From the perspective of regional characteristics, the total factor productivity of forestry presents obvious region-based differences due to the differences in both natural and historical conditions, and economic and social advancement. By region, the growth in total factor productivity of forestry is insufficient in eastern Gansu, limited in southern Gansu and fast in middle Gansu. By county territory, there is a great difference among counties in southern Gansu, followed by middle Gansu and the least in eastern Gansu. 4) From the perspective of influencing factors, the total factor productivity of forestry is subject to the following factors, including age, cadre number, migrant worker headcount, proportion of forestry income to total income, extent where forest road meets the need, geographical location, difficulty in lumbering index application, access to forestry subsidy, participation in forest insurance, the difficulty in forest right mortgage loan and participation in forest cooperative society. Conclusion: 1) High value should be put to the basic research on forestry theories, the constant transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements in forestry and the reliance on scientific and technological progress so as to ensure the sustainable development in forestry. 2) The training measures of forestry should be strengthened, and the efficiency of forestry technology should be improved. Attention should be paid to the effect of forestry technology, and the development mode of forestry should be shifted. 3) The financing supply for forestry should be increased, and the standardized forest land circulation should be guided. The socialized service system of forestry should be completed, and the scale efficiency of forestry should be promoted so as to realize its scale economy. 4) Technological progress should be improved continuously, and technical efficiency should be boosted gradually. Sscale potential should be tapped fully so as to prompt all productivity component to form synergy; the production factors of forestry should be allocated rationally and effectively. 5) Forestry development among various areas should allow for the particularity of their own forestry resource endowment and the necessity and difficulty in ecological security. The targeted support policies should be provided to develop forestry based on local conditions; regional exchange and cooperation should be enhanced to facilitate regional common development.

Key words: ecologically fragile areas, forestry, total factor productivity, influencing factors

中图分类号:

F326.24

黄书苑,马丁丑,傅一敏,杨建州. 生态脆弱地区林业全要素生产率变动及其影响因素——基于甘肃省10年500个农户的跟踪调查[J]. 林业科学, 2024, 60(6): 153-164.

Shuyuan Huang,Dingchou Ma,Yimin Fu,Jianzhou Yang. Changes and Influencing Factors of Total Factor Productivity of Forestry in Ecologically Vulnerable Areas: on the Basis of the Ten-Year Tracking Investigation of 500 Peasant Households in Gansu Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2024, 60(6): 153-164.

图/表 9

表1

表2

表3

变量说明及描述性统计①"

变量分类 Variable classification	变量定义 Variable definitions	变量赋值 Variable assignment	预期方向 Expected direction	平均值 Average value	标准差 Standard deviation	最大值 Maximum	最小值 Minimum
户主特征 Household head characteristics	X₁ 教育程度 Education level	小学及以下=1，初中=2，高中或中专=3，本科或大专及以上=4 Primary school and below = 1, junior high school = 2 , high school or secondary school = 3, undergraduate or college and above = 4	+	1.726	0.745	4.000	1.000
	lnX₂ 年龄 Years old	岁 Year	？	3.912	0.212	4.443	2.996
	X₃ 是否担任干部 Whether to serve as a cadre	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, No=0	+	0.231	0.422	1.000	0.000
家庭特征 Household characteristics	X₄ 外出务工人数 Number of migrant workers	人 Person	?	0.880	0.908	5.000	0.000
家庭特征 Household characteristics	X₅ 林业收入与总收入占比 Proportion of forestry income to total income	百分率 Percentage	+	0.105	0.180	1.000	0.000
林地特征 Forest land characteristics	X₆ 块数 Number of blocks	块 Block	？	2.919	1.962	20.000	1.000
林地特征 Forest land characteristics	X₇ 林道是否满足需要 Whether forest-road meets the need	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, No=0	+	0.715	0.451	1.000	0.000
区位特征 Location characteristics	X₈ 地理区位 Geographical location	陇东黄土高原及沟壑区（黄河流域）=1；陇南西秦岭山脉地区（长江流域）=2；陇中黄土高原丘陵区（黄河流域）=3 Longdong Loess Plateau and ravines (Yellow River Basin) = 1, Longnan West Qinling Mountain Range area (Yangtze River Basin) = 2, Longzhong Loess Plateau hilly area (Yellow River Basin) = 3		2.100	0.831	3.000	1.000
林业政策 Forestry policy	X₉ 采伐指标申请是否麻烦 Whether it is troublesome to apply for harvesting indicators	未曾申请=1，是=2，否=3 Not applied=1, Yes=2, No=3		1.054	0.304	3.000	1.000
	X₁₀ 林业补贴是否获得 Whether forestry subsidies are received	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, No=0	？	0.977	0.151	1.000	0.000
	X₁₁ 森林保险是否参与 Whether forest insurance is involved	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, No=0	+	0.055	0.228	1.000	0.000
	X₁₂ 林权抵押贷款是否简单 Whether a forest tenure mortgage is simple	特别麻烦=1，稍微麻烦=2，正常=3，稍微简单=4，特别简单=5 Extra troublesome = 1, slightly troublesome = 2, normal = 3, slightly simpler = 4, extra simple = 5	？	2.311	0.606	5.000	1.000
林业服务 Forestry service	X₁₃ 林业合作社是否参与 Whether forestry cooperatives are involved	是=1，否=0 Yes=1, No=0	+	0.051	0.219	1.000	0.000

表3

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图1

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地理区域 Geographic region	地级行政区 Prefecture-level administrative districts	县级行政区 County-level administrative districts	自然区域特点 Natural area features	样本量 Sample size
陇东地区 Longdong area	平凉市Pingliang city	灵台县Lingtai county	黄土高原及沟壑区（黄河流域） Loess Plateau and ravines (Yellow River Basin)	150
	平凉市Pingliang city	泾川县Jingchuan county
	庆阳市Qingyang city	合水县Heshui county
陇南地区 Longnan area	陇南市Longnan city	康县Kang county	西秦岭山脉地区（长江流域） West Qinling Mountain range area(Yangtze River Basin)	150
		徽县Hui county
		宕昌县Dangchang county
陇中地区 Longzhong area	临夏市Linxia city	永靖县Yongjing county	黄土高原丘陵区（黄河流域） Loess Plateau hilly area (Yellow River Basin)	200
	白银市Baiyin city	会宁县Huining county
	定西市Dingxi city	通渭县Tongwei county
	天水市Tianshui city	清水县Qingshui county

指标 Index	指标释义 Indicator interpretation	平均值 Average value	标准差 Standard deviation	最大值 Maximum	最小值 Minimum
资金投入 Capital investment	林业支出：种苗、化肥农药、机械或畜力、税收及其他费用 Forestry expenditure: seedlings, fertilizers and pesticides, machinery or animal power, taxes and other expenses/yuan	3 304.389	4 564.743	18 390.000	190.700
土地投入 Land input	林地面积 Forest area/hm²	2.412	1.512	6.252	0.894
劳动投入 Labor input	自投与雇工数 Number of self-employed and employed workers/(person·day^?1)	2.817	8.140	69.000	1.000
经济产出 Economic output	林业收入：林业经营性、工资性、财产性、转移性和其他收入 Forestry income (yuan): forestry operation, wages, property, transfer and other income/yuan	5 440.152	6 941.367	32 394.540	605.580
生态产出 Ecological output	造林面积 Afforestation area/hm²	0.081	0.014	0.158	0.068
社会产出 Social output	林业科技服务 Forestry science and technology services/times	0.729	0.466	3.000	0

年份 Year	全要素生产率 Total factor productivity	技术进步 Technological progress	技术效率 Technical efficiency	纯技术效率 Pure technical efficiency	规模效率 Scale efficiency
2010—2011	1.131	1.108	1.023	1.005	1.017
2011—2012	1.336	1.477	0.904	0.932	0.969
2012—2013	0.663	0.596	1.128	1.088	1.034
2013—2014	1.216	1.242	0.983	0.994	0.987
2014—2015	1.027	1.086	0.946	0.998	0.942
2015—2016	1.686	1.392	1.162	1.015	1.142
2016—2017	1.054	1.086	0.945	0.991	0.952
2017—2018	1.124	1.102	1.007	1.014	0.993
平均Mean	1.154	1.136	1.012	1.005	1.005

自然地理区域 Physical geographic area	县级行政区 County-level administrative districts	全要素生产率 Total factor productivity	技术进步 Technological progress	技术效率 Technical efficiency	纯技术效率 Pure technical efficiency	规模效率 Scale efficiency
陇东地区 Longdong area	灵台县Lingtai County	1.040	1.040	1.000	1.000	1.000
	泾川县Jingchuan county	1.187	1.187	1.000	1.000	1.000
	合水县Heshui county	1.140	1.110	1.004	1.008	0.991
	平均Mean	1.122	1.112	1.001	1.003	0.997
陇南地区 Longnan area	康县Kang county	1.300	1.149	1.091	1.020	1.056
	徽县Hui county	1.075	1.092	1.027	1.020	1.005
	宕昌县Dangchang county	1.049	1.068	0.996	0.994	1.000
	平均Mean	1.141	1.103	1.038	1.012	1.020
陇中地区 Longzhong area	永靖县Yongjing county	1.150	1.150	1.006	1.001	1.004
	会宁县Huining county	1.313	1.277	0.998	1.003	0.989
	通渭县Tongwei county	1.179	1.179	1.000	1.000	1.000
	清水县Qingshui county	1.112	1.111	1.000	1.000	1.000
	平均Mean	1.189	1.179	1.001	1.001	0.998

解释变量Explanatory variables	全要素生产率1 Total factor productivity 1
解释变量Explanatory variables	（1）	（2）	（3）
X₁ 教育程度Education level	?0.001 (0.012)	0.001 (0.011)	?0.008 (0.010)
lnX₂ 年龄Years old	0.056 (0.041)	0.075^* (0.041)	0.062^* (0.036)
X₃ 是否担任干部 Whether to serve as a cadre	0.026 (0.021)	0.015 (0.021)	0.042^** (0.018)
X₄ 外出务工人数 Number of migrant workers	?0.639^*** (0.045)	?0.589^*** (0.044)	?0.372^*** (0.039)
X₅ 林业收入与总收入占比Proportion of forestry income to total income	0.258^*** (0.048)	0.318^*** (0.048)	0.197^*** (0.042)
X₆ 块数Number of blocks	0.001 (0.004)	0.001 (0.004)	0.001 (0.004)
X₇ 林道是否满足需要 Whether forest-road meets the need		0.244^*** (0.018)	0.140^*** (0.016)
X₈ 地理区位Geographical location		0.038^*** (0.010)	0.056^*** (0.009)
X₉ 采伐指标申请是否麻烦Whether it is troublesome to apply for harvesting indicators		?0.096^*** (0.025)	?0.101^*** (0.022)
X₁₀ 林业补贴是否获得 Whether forestry subsidies are received			0.118^*** (0.046)
X₁₁ 森林保险是否参与 Whether forest insurance is involved			0.181^*** (0.029)
X₁₂ 林权抵押贷款是否简单Whether a forest tenure mortgage is simple			0.047^*** (0.011)
X₁₃ 林业合作社是否参与Whether forestry cooperatives are involved			0.893^*** (0.027)
常数项Constant	1.522^*** (0.176)	1.337^*** (0.181)	0.863^*** (0.168)