浙江省马尾松天然林枯损与进界模型构建及影响因素分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20260068

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to develop stand-level mortality and ingrowth models for natural Pinus massoniana forests in Zhejiang Province, and identify the key factors influencing stand dynamics, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of P. massoniana forests in this region. Method: Based on the data from the 5th (1994), 6th (1999), 7th (2004), and 8th (2009) Continuous Forest Inventories in permanent sample plots of Zhejiang Province, a total of 389 sample plots of natural P. massoniana forests were selected, with 311 used for model simulation and 78 for validation. The Kendall’s tau-b correlation coefficient was used to screen stand and site factors. Six types of generalized linear models, including the Poisson model (Poisson), the negative binomial model (NB), the zero-inflated Poisson model (ZIP), the zero-inflated negative binomial model (ZINB), the Hurdle-Poisson model (HP), and the Hurdle-negative binomial model (HNB), were constructed to fit and compare the stand mortality and ingrowth processes. The fitting performance of each model was compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), –2 times the log-likelihood (–2logL), and the Vuong test. The prediction performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Result: 1) The ZINB model demonstrated the best overall performance for both mortality and ingrowth simulations. 2) The negative binomial series models (NB, ZINB, HNB) showed significantly better fit than their corresponding Poisson series counterparts (Poisson, ZIP, HP), with comparable performance observed between the ZIP and HP models, and a slight advantage of the ZINB model over the HNB model. 3) Stand mortality was primarily influenced by stand density, stand basal area at breast height, broad-leaved tree basal area at breast height, and elevation. 4) Stand ingrowth was mainly affected by stand density, stand basal area at breast height, and broad-leaved tree basal area at breast height. The site factors showed no significant influence on ingrowth. Conclusion: Stand density is a core variable that simultaneously regulate both mortality and ingrowth processes, but with opposite effects. The increase in the proportion of broad-leaved trees helps reduce mortality risk in P. massoniana stands and promotes its regeneration. It is recommended that practical forest management for P. massoniana should involve in rational control of stand density and appropriate enrichment planting with broad-leaved species, thereby maintaining the long-term health and productivity of P. massoniana forests.

Key words: Pinus massoniana, mortality model, ingrowth model, generalized linear model, zero-inflated model

CLC Number:

S758.5

Yangjun Mao,Libang Ma,Haotian Guo,Tongxin Li,Yixiang Wang. Model Construction and Influencing Factors Analysis of Mortality and Ingrowth for Natural Pinus massoniana Forests in Zhejiang Province[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(10): 82-92.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Parameter estimates and evaluation statistics for zero-inflated models and hurdle models"

类别Class	参数Parameter	ZIP模型ZIP model	ZINB模型ZINB model	HP模型HP model	HNB模型HNB model
林分枯损模型 Stand mortality model	计数部分Count component
	截距Intercept	3.637 3 (0.022 3)^***	3.525 4 (0.224 6)^***	3.637 3 (0.022 3)^***	3.532 8 (0.222 8)^***
	N	0.000 5 (0.000 1)^***	0.000 6 (0.000 1)^***	0.000 5 (0.000 1)^***	0.000 6 (0.000 1)^***
	G	0.043 7 (0.001 0)^***	0.044 6 (0.011 9)^***	0.043 7 (0.001 0)^***	0.044 4 (0.011 8)^***
	G_b	?0.112 6 (0.004 2)^***	?0.092 1 (0.038 7)^*	?0.112 6 (0.004 2)^***	?0.091 8 (0.038 3)^*
	EL	?0.000 8 (0.000 1)^***	?0.000 8 (0.000 3)^*	?0.000 8 (0.000 1)^***	?0.000 8 (0.000 3)^*
	θ	—	0.738 1 (0.078 1)^***	—	0.738 1 (0.078 1)^***
	零部分Zero component
	截距Intercept	6.663 8 (0.676 1)^***	6.654 7 (0.677 3)^***	?6.663 7 (0.676 1)^***	?6.663 7 (0.676 1)^***
	N	?0.003 1 (0.000 4)^***	?0.003 1 (0.000 4)^***	0.003 1 (0.000 4)^***	0.003 1 (0.000 4)^***
	G	?0.326 0 (0.048 4)^***	?0.326 1 (0.048 6)^***	0.326 0 (0.048 4)^***	0.326 0 (0.048 4)^***
	G_b	0.645 8 (0.156 5)^***	0.645 3 (0.157 4)^***	?0.645 8 (0.156 5)^***	?0.645 8 (0.156 5)^***
	AIC	14 745.58	2 118.74	14 745.58	2 118.77
	BIC	14 779.24	2 156.14	14 779.24	2 156.17
	–2logL	14 727.58	2 098.74	14 727.58	2 098.77
林分进界模型 Stand ingrowth model	计数部分Count component
	截距Intercept	5.748 6 (0.013 0)^***	5.703 0 (0.121 6)^***	5.748 6 (0.0130)^***	5.702 0 (0.120 7)^***
	N	–0.001 1 (0.000 1)^***	–0.001 1 (0.000 2)^***	–0.001 1 (0.000 1)^***	–0.001 1 (0.000 2)^***
	G_b	0.048 7 (0.006 6)^***	0.109 9 (0.045 8)^*	0.048 7 (0.006 6)^***	0.108 5 (0.045 2)^*
	θ	—	0.780 7 (0.070 7)^***	—	0.780 7 (0.070 7)^***
	零部分Zero component
	截距Intercept	–6.249 9 (0.652 8)^***	–6.262 2 (0.657 6)^***	6.249 8 (0.652 8)^***	6.249 8 (0.652 8)^***
	N	0.002 0 (0.000 4)^***	0.002 0 (0.000 4)^***	–0.002 0 (0.000 4)^***	–0.002 0 (0.000 4)^***
	G	0.485 3 (0.059 7)^***	0.485 9 (0.059 9)^***	–0.485 3 (0.059 7)^***	–0.485 3 (0.059 7)^***
	G_b	–1.303 4 (0.180 3)^***	–1.304 3 (0.181 3)^***	1.303 4 (0.180 3)^***	1.303 4 (0.180 3)^***
	AIC	23 719.56	2 817.24	23 719.56	2 817.29
	BIC	23 745.74	2 847.16	23 745.74	2 847.21
	–2logL	23 705.56	2 801.24	23 705.56	2 801.29

Table 5

Table 6

Fig.1

Fig.2

Table 7

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调查期次 Inventory round	样地数 Number of plots	枯损发生样地数 Plots with mortality	进界发生样地数 Plots with ingrowth	总样木数 Number of trees	总枯损株数 Mortality stem count	总进界株数 Ingrowth stem count	年均枯损率 Annual mortality rate (%)	年均进界率 Annual ingrowth rate (%)
第六次6th (1999)	93	6	32	7 670	111	333	0.29	0.87
第七次7th (2004)	104	44	59	8 880	421	618	0.95	1.39
第八次8th (2009)	192	113	130	18 740	1 135	1 597	1.21	1.70
总计/平均 Total/mean	389	163	221	35 290	1 667	2 548	0.94	1.44

变量 Variable	变量符号 Variable symbol	平均值 Mean	标准差 Std.	最小值 Min.	最大值 Max.
林分平均年龄Stand mean age/a	A	22.39	6.42	6	42
林分密度Stand density/(trees·hm^–2)	N	1162	666	250	4 650
林分平均高Stand mean height/m	H_d	7.56	2.38	3.5	15.8
林分平方平均胸径Stand quadratic mean diameter at breast height/cm	D_g	10.49	2.79	6.19	23.1
林分算术平均胸径Stand arithmetic mean diameter at breast height/cm	D_m	9.92	2.54	6.13	21.47
林分胸高断面积Stand basal area/(m²·hm^–2)	G	10.04	6.79	0.86	47.65
阔叶树胸高断面积 Broadleaved basal area/(m²·hm^–2)	G_b	0.81	1.44	0	10.5
阔叶树胸高断面积占比Proportion of broadleaved basal area (%)	P_b	7.17	8.83	0	41.1
海拔Elevation/ m	EL	318.55	190.54	40	830
坡度Slope/(°)	SL	28.76	9.57	0	75
土层厚度Soil depth/cm	SD	41.43	13.45	2	100
林分枯损株数Stand mortality stem count/(trees·hm^–2)	MC	53.57	105.70	0	613
林分进界株数Stand ingrowth stem count/(trees·hm^–2)	IC	81.88	133.94	0	738

变量 Variable	变量符号 Variable symbol	相关系数（林分枯损株数） Correlation with stand mortality stem count	相关系数（林分进界株数） Correlation with stand ingrowth stem count
林分平均年龄Stand mean age/a	A	0.10	–0.04
林分密度Stand density/(trees·hm^–2)	N	0.27	–0.17
林分平均高Stand mean height/m	H_d	0.07	–0.07
林分平方平均胸径Stand quadratic mean diameter at breast height/cm	D_g	0.10	–0.09
林分算术平均胸径Stand arithmetic mean diameter at breast height/cm	D_m	0.09	–0.10
林分胸高断面积Stand basal area/(m²·hm^–2)	G	0.28	–0.12
阔叶树胸高断面积 Broadleaved basal area/(m²·hm^–2)	G_b	0.13	–0.12
阔叶树胸高断面积占比Proportion of broadleaved basal area (%)	P_b	0.05	–0.06
海拔Elevation/ m	EL	–0.07	–0.02
坡度Slope/(°)	SL	–0.05	0.01
土层厚度Soil depth/cm	SD	0.06	0.03

类别 Class	参数 Parameter	Poisson模型 Poisson model	NB模型 NB model
林分枯损模型 Stand mortality model	截距 Intercept	2.100 5 (0.018 4)^***	–0.387 6 (0.338 8)
	N	0.001 0 (0.000 1)^***	0.002 0 (0.000 3)^***
	G	0.080 5 (0.000 9)^***	0.157 5 (0.031 9)^***
	G_b	–0.186 9 (0.004 0)^***	–0.224 8 (0.113 4)^*
	EL	–0.001 3 (0.000 1)^***	–0.001 2 (0.000 6)^*
	θ	—	6.900 2 (0.650 8)^***
	AIC	29 126.97	2 467.22
	BIC	29 145.67	2 489.66
	–2logL	29 116.97	2 455.22

林分进界模型 Stand ingrowth model	截距 Intercept	6.210 9 (0.0119)^***	7.399 0 (0.284 9)^***
	N	–0.001 3 (0.000 1)^***	–0.002 0 (0.000 2)^***
	G	–0.124 3 (0.002 1)^***	–0.253 2 (0.026 1)^***
	G_b	0.272 5 (0.006 9)^***	0.922 8 (0.120 8)^***
	θ	—	3.731 9 (0.314 0)^***
	AIC	35 023.81	3 128.70
	BIC	35 038.77	3 147.40
	–2logL	35 015.81	3 118.70

类别 Class	模型 Model	指标Index
类别 Class	模型 Model	均方根误差 RMSE/(trees·hm^–2)	平均绝对误差 MAE/(trees·hm^–2)
林分枯损模型 Stand mortality model	Poisson	79.111 2	42.385 9
	NB	78.319 9	39.829 5
	ZIP	73.133 3	37.051 3
	ZINB	70.703 9	36.996 2
	HP	73.133 3	37.051 3
	HNB	70.784 4	37.006 4

林分进界模型 Stand ingrowth model	Poisson	91.501 9	59.324 4
	NB	129.937 8	70.585 9
	ZIP	90.840 2	57.537 2
	ZINB	89.934 2	56.620 5
	HP	90.840 2	57.537 2
	HNB	89.936 0	56.659 0

Model Construction and Influencing Factors Analysis of Mortality and Ingrowth for Natural Pinus massoniana Forests in Zhejiang Province

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类别 Class	模型A Model A	模型B Model B	Vuong检验值 Vuong test statistic	P	较优模型 Preferred model
林分枯损模型 Stand mortality model	Poisson	NB	–7.87	<0.01	NB
	ZIP	ZINB	–5.86	<0.01	ZINB
	HP	HNB	–5.86	<0.01	HNB
	HNB	ZINB	–0.07	>0.05	ZINB

林分进界模型 Stand ingrowth model	Poisson	NB	–12.24	<0.01	NB
	ZIP	ZINB	–9.72	<0.01	ZINB
	HP	HNB	–9.72	<0.01	HNB
	HNB	ZINB	–0.09	>0.05	ZINB

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