基于演化博弈的林业碳汇项目建设违约风险防范机制

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20260032

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to reveal the evolutionary game dynamics of participants in forestry carbon sequestration projects, identify the key parameters influencing their decision-making, and explore optimal policy combinations by comparing the marginal effects of different policy measures, thereby providing a theoretical basis and policy references for mitigating default risks in forestry carbon sequestration projects. Method: A four-party evolutionary game model involving enterprises, forest landowners, verification institutions, and the government was constructed to analyze the behavioral decisions and evolutionary paths of the participants at different stages of project development. Based on this model, published data on forestry carbon sequestration projects were incorporated with typical cases, and MATLAB R2021a was used to conduct numerical simulations. Result: The game system converges to different stable equilibria at different stages of project development. In the initial stage, enterprises may engage in the default behavior of land hoarding and subcontracting due to risk aversion or speculative motives, while forest landowners may choose to prematurely harvest carbon sink forests because of insufficient technical guidance and other factors. In the development stage, verification institutions may only review the completeness of submitted applications due to cost constraints. In the mature stage, with the gradual improvement of carbon sequestration methodology and the continuous strengthening of the regulatory system, enterprises and forest landowners would ultimately tend toward long-term voluntary cooperation, thereby ensuring the authenticity and sustainability of emission reductions from forestry carbon sequestration projects. Simulation results indicate that: 1) inequitable income distribution is a major driver for default by the participants, and policy interventions that alleviate information asymmetry between enterprises and forest landowners can significantly promote compliance; 2) compared with increasing the amount of fines, appropriately increasing the amount of default compensation is more effective in promoting enterprise compliance, while government subsidies can effectively improve the quality of verification by verification institutions; and 3) incentive policies such as government subsidies can effectively prevent project quality degradation resulting from lax government supervision. Conclusion: The national voluntary emission reduction trading information platform should be improved to alleviate information asymmetry. A market-oriented regulatory mechanism centered on “default-compensation” and supplemented by government rewards and penalties should be established, and government guidance should be strengthened to continuously advance research on carbon sequestration methodologies and the formulation of relevant standards. These measures can help mitigate default risks in forestry carbon sequestration projects and promote the sustainable development of the forestry carbon sequestration market.

Key words: forestry carbon sink, risk prevention, evolutionary game, numerical simulation

CLC Number:

S7-9
F307.2

Kang Gao,Ziyu Guo,Xu Zhao. Mechanism for Preventing Default Risk in Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project Construction Based on Evolutionary Game Theory[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(10): 208-220.

Figures/Tables 11

Table 1

Description of parameters"

参数Parameter	参数含义 Description	参数Parameter	参数含义 Description
R_a	林业碳汇项目开发总收益 Total revenue from forest carbon sink project	$ F_2 $	政府对核查机构的罚款 Government fines auditing agencies for lax verification
$ \gamma_1 $	企业获得的收益分配比例 Profit distribution ratio for enterprises	$ M_0 $	政府对核查机构的补贴 Government incentives auditing agencies for rigorous verification
C_a	项目开发成本 Project development costs	R_g	项目开发后政府的碳减排收益 Government carbon emission reduction benefits following project development
C_b	项目申报成本 Project application costs	C_g	政府监管成本 Government regulatory costs
$ \gamma_2 $	企业负担的项目开发成本比例 Proportion of project development costs borne by enterprises	T_g	上级主管部门行政处罚额度 Administrative penalty amount imposed by higher-level competent authorities
R_w	企业违约圈地获得的合同转卖收入 Contract resale proceeds obtained by the enterprise through default	R_e	林农自愿认购碳汇的生态补偿量 The amount of ecological compensation voluntarily subscribed by forest landowners for carbon sinks
C_m	企业圈地支付给林农的违约金 Penalty fees paid by enterprises to forest landowners	$ \theta_1 $	企业违约对减排效果的影响系数 Coefficient of the impact of enterprise default on emissions reduction effectiveness
C_n	林农违约支付给企业的违约金 Penalty fees paid by forest landowners to enterprises	$ \theta_2 $	林农违约对减排效果的影响系数 Coefficient of the impact of forest landowners’ breach of contract on emissions reduction effectiveness
$ R_{\text{b}} $	林农违约行为造成的项目价值损失 Project value loss caused by forest landowners’ breach of contract	$ \theta_3 $	企业?林农共同违约的影响系数 Coefficient of the impact of joint breach of contract by enterprises and forest landowners
$ \beta $	林农额外木材收益的转化比例 Conversion ratio of forest landowners’ additional timber income	$ x $	企业守约开发的概率 Probability of enterprises contract compliance
R₀	核查机构的审核收益 Revenue of auditing agencies	$ y $	林农守约开发的概率 Probability of forest landowners contract compliance
$ C_1 $	核查机构全面审核成本 The cost of rigorous verification by auditing agencies	$ z $	核查机构全面审核的概率 Probability of rigorous verification by auditing agencies
$ C_2 $	核查机构准入审核成本 The cost of lax verification by auditing agencies	$ w $	政府严格监管的概率 Probability of government involvement in regulation
$ F_1 $	政府对圈地企业的罚款 Government fines for land-grabbing enterprises

Table 1

Table 2

Payoffs matrix of four players"

主体策略选择 Strategy selection	企业收益 Enterprise revenue	林农收益 Forest landowners revenue	机构收益 Agency revenue	政府收益 Government revenue
（1，1，1，1）	$ \gamma_1R_{\text{a}}-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)R_{\text{a}}-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}} $	$ R_0-C_1+M_0 $	$ R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}-M_0 $
（1，1，0，1）	$ \gamma_1R_{\text{a}}-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)R_{\text{a}}-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}} $	$ R_0-C_2 $	$ R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}} $
（1，1，1，0）	$ \gamma_1R_{\text{a}}-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)R_{\text{a}}-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}} $	$ R_0-C_1 $	$ R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（1，1，0，0）	$ \gamma_1R_{\text{a}}-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)R_{\text{a}}-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}} $	$ R_0-C_2 $	$ R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（1，0，1，1）	$ \gamma_1(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}}+C_{\text{n}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}}+\beta R_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{n}} $	$ R_0-C_1+M_0 $	$ \theta_2R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}-M_0+R_{\text{e}} $
（1，0，0，1）	$ \gamma_1(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}}+C_{\text{n}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}}+\beta R_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{n}} $	$ R_0-C_2 $	$ \theta_2R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}+R_{\text{e}} $
（1，0，1，0）	$ \gamma_1(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}}+\beta R_{\text{b}} $	$ R_0-C_1 $	$ \theta_2R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（1，0，0，0）	$ \gamma_1(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-\gamma_2C_{\text{a}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ (1-\gamma_1)(R_{\text{a}}-R_{\text{b}})-(1-\gamma_2)C_{\text{a}}+\beta R_{\text{b}} $	$ R_0-C_2 $	$ \theta_2R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（0，1，1，1）	$ -C_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{m}}-F_1 $	$ C_{\text{m}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_1 $	$ \theta_1R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}+F_1 $
（0，1，0，1）	$ -C_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{m}}-F_1 $	$ C_{\text{m}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_2-F_2 $	$ \theta_1R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+F_2 $
（0，1，1，0）	$ -C_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{m}} $	$ C_{\text{m}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_1 $	$ \theta_1R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（0，1，0，0）	$ R_{\text{w}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ -C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_2 $	$ \theta_1R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（0，0，1，1）	$ -C_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{m}}+C_{\text{n}}-F_1 $	$ \beta R_{\text{b}}+C_{\text{m}}-C_{\text{n}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_1 $	$ \theta_3R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+R_{\text{e}} $
（0，0，0，1）	$ -C_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{m}}+C_{\text{n}}-F_1 $	$ \beta R_{\text{b}}+C_{\text{m}}-C_{\text{n}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_2-F_2 $	$ \theta_3R_{\text{g}}-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+F_2+R_{\text{e}} $
（0，0，1，0）	$ -C_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{m}} $	$ \beta R_{\text{b}}+C_{\text{m}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_1 $	$ \theta_3R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $
（0，0，0，0）	$ R_{\text{w}}-C_{\text{b}} $	$ \beta R_{\text{b}}-C_{\text{v}} $	$ R_0-C_2 $	$ \theta_3R_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $

Table 2

Table 3

Stability analysis of quadratic pure strategy equilibrium solutions"

均衡点 Equilibrium points	特征值$ \lambda_ 1、\lambda_ 2、\lambda _3、\lambda _4 $ Eigenvalues $ \lambda_ 1，\lambda _2，\lambda _3，\lambda _4 $	正负性 Positive or negative	稳定性及条件 Stability and conditions	理想性 Idealism
$ E_1(0,0,0,0) $	$ -R_{\text{w}}+\Delta _1,-\beta R_{\text{b}},-\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+F_2+R_{\text{e}}+T_{\text{g}} $	$ \times --\times $	ESS（条件1） ESS (condition 1)	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_2(0,0,0,1) $	$ C_{\text{m}}+F_1+\Delta _1,C_{\text{n}}-\beta R_{\text{b}},-\Delta P+F_2,C_{\text{g}}-F_1-F_2-R_{\text{e}}-T_{\text{g}} $	$ +\times \times \times $	不稳定 Unstable	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_3(0,0,1,0) $	$ C_{\text{m}}+\Delta _1,-\beta R_{\text{b}},\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+R_{\text{e}}+T_{\text{g}} $	$ +-+\times $	不稳定 Unstable	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_4(0,0,1,1) $	$ C_{\text{m}}+F_1+\Delta _1,C_{\text{n}}-\beta R_{\text{b}},\Delta P-F_2,C_{\text{g}}-F_1-R_{\text{e}}-T_{\text{g}} $	$ +\times \times \times $	不稳定 Unstable	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_5(0,1,0,0) $	$ -R_{\text{w}}+\Delta _2,\beta R_{\text{b}},-\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+F_2+T_{\text{g}} $	$ \times +-\times $	不稳定 Unstable	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_6(1,0,0,0) $	$ R_{\text{w}}-\Delta _1,-\Delta _3,-\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}+R_{\text{e}}+T_{\text{g}} $	$ \times --\times $	ESS（条件2） ESS (condition 2)	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_7(1,0,0,1) $	$ -C_{\text{m}}-F_1-\Delta _1,C_{\text{n}}-\Delta _3,-\Delta P+M_0,C_{\text{g}}-R_{\text{e}}-T_{\text{g}} $	$ -\times \times \times $	ESS（条件3） ESS (condition 3)	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_8(0,1,0,1) $	$ C_{\text{m}}+F_1+\Delta _2,-C_{\text{n}}+\beta R_{\text{b}},-\Delta P+F_2,C_{\text{g}}-F_1-F_2-T_{\text{g}} $	$ +\times \times \times $	不稳定 Unstable	不理想 Not ideal
$ E_9(0,1,1,0) $	$ C_{\text{m}}+\Delta _2,\beta R_{\text{b}},\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}+F_1+T_{\text{g}} $	$ +++\times $	不稳定 Unstable	不太理想 Not quite ideal
$ E_{10}(1,0,1,0) $	$ -C_{\text{m}}-\Delta _1,-\Delta _3,\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}-M_0+R_{\text{e}}+T_{\text{g}} $	$ --+\times $	不稳定 Unstable	不太理想 Not quite ideal
$ E_{11}(0,1,1,1) $	$ C_{\text{m}}+F_1+\Delta _2,-C_{\text{n}}+\beta R_{\text{b}},\Delta P-F_2,C_{\text{g}}-F_1-T_{\text{g}} $	$ +\times \times \times $	不稳定 Unstable	不太理想 Not quite ideal
$ E_{12}(1,0,1,1) $	$ -C_{\text{m}}-F_1-\Delta _1,C_{\text{n}}-\Delta _3,\Delta P-M_0,C_{\text{g}}+M_0-R_{\text{e}}-T_{\text{g}} $	$ -\times \times \times $	ESS（条件4） ESS (condition 4)	不太理想 Not quite ideal
$ E_{13}(1,1,0,1) $	$ -C_{\text{m}}-F_1-\Delta _2,-C_{\text{n}}+\Delta _3,-\Delta P+M_0,C_{\text{g}}-T_{\text{g}} $	$ -\times \times \times $	ESS（条件5） ESS (condition 5)	不太理想 Not quite ideal
$ E_{14}(1,1,0,0) $	$ R_{\text{w}}-\Delta _2,\Delta _3,-\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}+T_{\text{g}} $	$ \times +-\times $	不稳定 Unstable	不太理想 Not quite ideal
$ E_{15}(1,1,1,0) $	$ -C_{\text{m}}-\Delta _2,\Delta _3,\Delta P,-C_{\text{g}}-M_0+T_{\text{g}} $	$ -++\times $	不稳定 Unstable	理想 Ideal
$ E_{16}(1,1,1,1) $	$ -C_{\text{m}}-F_1-\Delta _2,-C_{\text{n}}+\Delta _3,\Delta P-M_0,C_{\text{g}}+M_0-T_{\text{g}} $	$ -\times \times \times $	ESS（条件6） ESS (condition 6)	理想 Ideal

Table 3

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Fig.5

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Mechanism for Preventing Default Risk in Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project Construction Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

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