中国木浆进口风险的多维度分析与评价

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230025

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: China is the largest country in the production and consumption of paper and paperboard in the world, and the paper industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy. As the basic raw material of the paper industry, wood pulp has become the largest import category of China’s wood forest products since 1995. It has the characteristics of large import volume, rapid growth and high prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the import risk of China’s wood pulp to ensure the supply chain security of the paper industry chain. Method: After standardizing and determining the algorithm of the import market concentration ratio, the import dependence in consumption, and the import international market share of China’s wood pulp, and scientifically setting the risk zone of China’s wood pulp import risk caused by them, the multiplication index and additive index of China’s wood pulp import risk were constructed with their risk zone set scientifically, the reasonable evaluation method of China’s wood pulp import risk index was determined through comparison. Result: The import dependence in consumption, the import market concentration ratio, and the import international market share of China’s wood pulp, are the core factors that lead to the import risk of China’s wood pulp. The import dependence in consumption of China’s wood pulp appeared a slow decline trend in reducing fluctuation and at high level from 2000 to 2021, and it was 62.34% in 2021, the import risk caused by it was in the high risk zone, close to the extremely high risk zone. The import market concentration ratio CR₈ of China’s wood pulp presented a slow decline trend in fluctuations and at a high level from 2000 to 2021, and it was 89.69% in 2021, the import risk caused by it was in the extremely high risk zone. The import international market share of China’s wood pulp was rising rapidly from 2000 to 2021, and it reached 43.28% in 2021, the import risk caused by it was in the high-risk zone. The overall evaluation method of China’s wood pulp import risk based on multi-dimension should adopt the factor multiplication method, but no matter the multiplicative index or additive index constructed, it shows that China’s wood pulp import risk is in the extremely high risk zone. Conclusion: In order to reduce the import risk of China’s wood pulp, it is proposed to promote the construction of industrial pulp forest to expand the supply of domestic wood pulp, guide the domestic demand of pulp and paper from the production, consumption and export of paper and paperboard, adjust the product structure of wood pulp and paper trade by replacing pulp with paper, and optimize the import source market structure of wood pulp by increasing overseas investment.

Key words: wood pulp, import dependence, import risk, import market concentration ratio, import international market share, multiplicative index

CLC Number:

F326.2

Fuwei Wang,Minghua Tian,Shaozhi Chen,Hongxun Li,Mingxing Hu. Multidimensional Analysis and Evaluation of China’s Wood Pulp Import Risk[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(10): 150-161.

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年份 Year	进口对外依存度 Import dependence(%)	进口市场集中度 Import market concentration ratio		进口国际市场占有率 Import international market share(%)	进口风险乘法指数 Import risk multiplicative index(%)	进口风险加法指数 Import risk additive index(%)
年份 Year	进口对外依存度 Import dependence(%)	CR₈(%)	HHI	进口国际市场占有率 Import international market share(%)	进口风险乘法指数 Import risk multiplicative index(%)	进口风险加法指数 Import risk additive index(%)
2000	62.38	96.71	1 840.56	8.85	37.65	55.98
2001	70.96	94.91	1 543.04	12.51	43.84	59.46
2002	71.02	92.93	1 530.42	12.77	43.84	58.91
2003	73.44	90.96	1 466.03	14.95	46.39	59.78
2004	75.21	92.46	1 489.14	16.29	48.38	61.32
2005	67.45	92.74	1 511.46	16.94	47.32	59.04
2006	60.55	91.69	1 510.12	17.73	46.17	56.66
2007	58.73	92.31	1 455.77	18.37	46.35	56.47
2008	58.63	91.70	1 371.73	19.92	47.49	56.75
2009	71.26	89.26	1 316.47	30.06	57.61	63.53
2010	61.63	89.93	1 424.11	23.98	51.03	58.51
2011	63.99	89.75	1 460.16	28.10	54.44	60.61
2012	67.25	89.38	1 334.01	31.28	57.29	62.64
2013	65.85	89.22	1 323.58	30.17	56.17	61.75
2014	65.36	88.50	1 282.53	35.80	59.16	63.22
2015	67.49	89.61	1 321.31	34.74	59.45	63.94
2016	67.90	91.07	1 350.38	34.29	59.63	64.42
2017	69.52	89.87	1 324.79	39.55	62.75	66.32
2018	68.56	90.38	1 463.75	38.90	62.24	65.95
2019	68.40	88.10	1 344.96	40.87	62.68	65.79
2020	67.43	87.76	1 377.41	43.39	63.56	66.19
2021	62.34	89.69	1 409.37	43.28	62.32	65.10

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Multidimensional Analysis and Evaluation of China’s Wood Pulp Import Risk

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