美国杂草风险评估方法对我国入侵植物的可应用性

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20200422

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: In this study,a priori category of alien plants in China was used to test the assessment effect by the United States weed risk assessment system (USWRA),and the paper further analyzed whether USWRA could be applicable to the quarantine management of forest plants in China,in order to lay a foundation for the establishment of risk assessment methods for invasive plants in China. Method: In this paper,131 alien plants (including 76 non-invasive plants and 55 invasive plants) with a priori category in China were selected and tested with USWRA. The evaluation outcome of USWRA was analyzed through comparing the predictive categories of the tested plants evaluated by USWRA with the known categories,and the outcome was tested using the ROC curve. In addition,the proportion difference of invasive plants in different life forms was analyzed by Friedman test and Nemenyi method. One-way ANOVA and LSD multiple comparison methods were used to analyze the differences in risk scores among different life forms of plants. Result: For major invasive plants,USWRA correctly rejected 68.4% of them,and did not wrongly accept single one,and the remaining 31.6% needed to be evaluated further. For non-invasive plants,USWRA correctly accepted 84.2% of them,and did not wrongly reject single one,and the remaining 15.8% needed to be evaluated further. For minor invasive plants,USWRA rejected 27.8% of them,accepted 5.6% of them,and the remaining 66.7% needed to be evaluated further. The ROC curve test results showed that USWRA had a high ability to distinguish major invasive plants from non-invasive plants with a curved AUC value up to 0.990. In addition,there were significant differences in risk scores to become invasive plants among different life forms,and the risk scores of herbaceous and vine plants were significantly higher than those of arbor plants. There were significant differences in the proportion of invasive plants in different life forms,and the risk of herbaceous and vine-like plants becoming invasive plants was greater than that of tree plants. Conclusion: USWRA can satisfactorily discriminate major invasive plants from non-invasive plants without any error,and thus it can be applied the quarantine management of forest plants in China.

Key words: invasive alienplant, weed, weed risk assessment, ROC curve

CLC Number:

S718.3

Shanyong He,Fei Xu,Ning Zhang,Junbao Wen,Liping Yin. Applicability of the United States Weed Risk Assessment System to Invasive Plants in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(4): 197-208.

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References 0

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k	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
q_0.05	1.960	2.241	2.394	2.498	2.576	2.638	2.690	2.724	2.773
q_0.1	1.645	1.960	2.128	2.241	2.326	2.394	2.450	2.498	2.539

已知植物类别 Class	ES		IMP
已知植物类别 Class	均值±标准差Mean±SE	分数范围Range of scores	均值±标准差Mean±SE	分数范围Range of scores
非入侵植物 Non-invasive plants	-1.47±0.43^A	-9~10	1.06±0.02^A	1.0~1.8
一般入侵植物 Minor-invasive plants	6.67±0.64^B	0~16	1.66±0.08^B	1.0~2.4
严重入侵植物 Major- invasive plants	10.68±0.71^C	4~17	1.84±0.09^B	1.1~2.5

结果 Outcome	非入侵植物 Non-invasive plants	严重入侵植物 Major invasive plants	一般入侵植物 Minor invasive plants	入侵植物(严重+一般) Invasive plants(major+minor)
接受Accept	64(84.2%)	0	2 (5.6%)	2 (3.6%)
拒绝Reject	0	13 (68.4%)	10 (27.8%)	23 (41.8%)
再评估Evaluate further	12 (15.8%)	6 (31.6%)	24 (66.7%)	30 (54.5%)
总计Total	76	19	36	55

项目Item	草本Grass	藤本Vine	灌木Shrub	乔木Tree
严重入侵植物比例 Proportion of major-invasive plants	0.20(2)	0.25(1)	0.11(3)	0.00(4)
一般入侵植物比例 Proportion of minor-invasive plants	0.39(1)	0.25(2)	0.16(3)	0.10(4)
平均秩值 Average rank	1.5	1.5	3	4

生活型Life form	草本Grass	藤本Vine	灌木Shrub	乔木Tree
草本Grass	0	0	1.5	2.5
藤木Vine	0	0	1.5	2.5
灌木Shrub	1.5	1.5	0	1
乔木Tree	2.5	2.5	1	0

Applicability of the United States Weed Risk Assessment System to Invasive Plants in China

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生活型 Life form	平均风险值(±SE) Average risk score (±SE)	生活型数量比例 Proportion of life form(%)
草本Grass	1.75 ± 0.22^a	50 (66/131)
藤本Vine	1.61 ± 0.50^a	9 (12/131)
灌木Shrub	1.16 ± 0.34^ab	15 (19/131)
乔木Tree	0.74 ± 0.24^b	22 (29/131)

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