森林可持续管理对“四库”安全的作用机制与实证分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250310

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to quantitatively analyze the mechanism and impact pathways of forest sustainable management on "Four-Repository" security, providing decision-making references for improving forest resource management system construction. Method: Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, this study comprehensively employed the entropy method, two-stage least squares method, and mediation effect model to construct an evaluation index system for forest “Four-Repository” security and analyze the impact mechanism of forest sustainable management on “Four-Repository” security. Result: 1) Forest sustainable management has a significantly positive impact on “Four-Repository” security, with the greatest impact on forest resource utilization sustainability, and relatively smaller impacts on forest resource protection investment and forest system restoration intervention. 2) Forest sustainable management promotes “Four-Repository” security through two pathways: enhancing forestry green development resilience and strengthening forest ecosystem service value. The impact on forest resource utilization sustainability is mainly exerted through the pathway of enhancing the ecological service value, while the impact on forest resource protection investment and system restoration intervention is significantly operated through both pathways of enhancing forestry green development resilience and strengthening forest ecosystem service value. 3) The impact of forest sustainable management on “Four-Repository” security shows significant differences across different functional zones and economic development level regions. Forest resource utilization sustainability plays the most prominent role in key ecological functional zones, and different economic development level regions exhibit evolutionary characteristics from resource dependence to efficiency improvement and then to ecological service orientation. Conclusion: To deepen the synergistic development of forest sustainable management and “Four-Repository” security, it is necessary to strengthen policy orientation for sustainable utilization of forest resources, construct differentiated regional forest resource management systems, establish synergistic enhancement mechanisms for forest resilience and ecological services, improve institutional systems for forest “Four-Repository” security assurance, and enhance the comprehensive support capacity of forest resources for “Four-Repository” security.

Key words: forest sustainable management, forest “Four-Repository” security, forestry green development resilience, forest ecosystem service value, overall national security

CLC Number:

S7-9
F307.2

Limei Lin,Weinuo Chen,Qinping Chen,Ansheng Huang. Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Forest Sustainable Management on “Four-Repository” Security[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(2): 214-229.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1

Evaluation index system for forest “Four-Repository” security"

一级指标Primary indicators	二级指标 Secondary indicators	三级指标 Tertiary indicators	测量方式 Measurement method	指标属性Attribute	权重Weight（%）
水库安全Water repository security	水资源保障Water resource security	人均水资源量 Per capita water resources	水资源总量/人口数量 Total water resources/population/ （m3·person^?1）	+	4.155
	水资源保障Water resource security	供水保障率 Water supply security rate	供水总量/区域总人口 Total water supply/regional population/（m3·person^?1）	+	12.481
	水文调节Hydrological regulation	水资源利用率 Water resource utilization rate	（供水总量/水资源总量）×100% （Total water supply/total water resources）×100%	+	7.468
	水文调节Hydrological regulation	水土流失治理率 Soil erosion control rate	（水土流失治理面积/区域国土面积）×100% （Soil erosion control area/regional land area）×100%	+	2.809
碳库安全Carbon repository security	碳汇功能 Carbon sink function	区域碳平衡率 Regional carbon balance rate	（森林碳储量/碳排放量）×100% （Forest carbon storage/carbon emissions）×100%	+	10.204
	碳汇功能 Carbon sink function	碳汇稳定性 Carbon sink stability	近5年森林碳储量的变异系数 Coefficient of variation of forest carbon storage （5-year）	－	3.319
	气候稳定性Climate stability	气候极端风险指数Extreme climate risk index	极端低温、高温、降雨、干旱气候日数平均值 Average days with extreme temperature， rainfall，and drought	－	1.767
	气候稳定性Climate stability	空气质量优良天数比例Good air quality days ratio	空气质量二级以上天数占比 Proportion of days with air quality level 2+	+	8.861
粮库安全 Grain repository security	森林食品供给量Forest food supply capacity	森林食品产量密度Forest food production density	森林食品总产量/森林总面积 Total forest food production/total forest area/[（t·（10⁴ hm²）^?1]	+	11.357
	森林食品供给量Forest food supply capacity	油茶产业发展水平Oil-tea industry development level	（油茶种植面积/森林总面积）×100% （Oil-tea planting area/total forest area）×100%	+	6.199
	森林食品供给稳定性Forest food supply stability	森林食品产量稳定系数Forest food production stability coefficient	1/森林食品总产量变异系数（近5年） 1/coefficient of variation of total forest food production （recent 5 years）	+	4.308
	森林食品供给稳定性Forest food supply stability	森林食品相对增长率Forest food relative growth rate	森林食品产量增长率/粮食作物产量增长率Forest food production growth rate/grain crop production growth rate	+	3.507
钱库安全Financial repository security	林业经济贡献Forestry economic contribution	林业产值占比 Forestry output percentage	（林业产值/区域GDP）×100% （Forestry output value/regional GDP）×100%	+	9.621
	林业经济贡献Forestry economic contribution	林业就业贡献率Forestry employment contribution	（林业从业人员数/就业总人口）×100% （Forestry workers/total employed population）×100%	+	5.152
	林业产业发展质量Quality of forestry industry development	林业产值增长稳定性Stability of forestry output value growth	林业产值增长率的5年滚动标准差 5-year rolling standard deviation of forestry output value growth rate	－	2.351
	林业产业发展质量Quality of forestry industry development	林业产业结构优化度Optimization of forestry industry structure	林业第二、三产业占比 Secondary and tertiary forestry industries ratio	+	4.441

Table 1

Table 2

Measurement indicators of forest sustainable management"

维度 Dimension	具体指标 Specific indicators	测量方式 Measurement method	权重 Weight（%）
森林资源保护投入 Forest protection investment	林业保护投入强度 Intensity of forestry protection investment	（林业生态保护投资/地区GDP）×100% （Forestry ecological protection investment/regional GDP）×100%	7.046
	自然保护区占比 Proportion of nature reserves	（自然保护区面积/森林总面积）×100% （Nature reserve area/total forest area）×100%	13.407
	公益林保护强度Public welfare forest protection intensity	公益林面积增长率的5年滚动标准差（负向指标）5-year rolling standard deviation of public welfare forest area growth rate （negative indicator）	3.258
	天然林停伐政策执行强度Natural forest logging ban policy implementation intensity	ln（1-当期原木产量/上一年原木产量）×天然林面积占比 ln（1 - current timber production/previous year timber production）× proportion of natural forest area	5.256
森林系统恢复干预 Forest system restoration intervention	森林有害生物防治效率Forest pest control efficiency	（森林有害生物防治投资/发生面积）×100% （Forest pest control investment/affected area）×100%	14.314
	人工造林密度 Artificial afforestation density	（人工造林面积/林业面积）×100% （Artificial afforestation area/forestry area）×100%	4.358
	低产林改造水平Low-productivity forest transformation level	低产林改造面积增长率 Growth rate of low-productivity forest transformation area	22.292
森林资源利用持续性Sustainability of forest resource utilization	林业资源集约利用Intensive utilization of forest resources	（林业产值/林地面积）×100% （Forestry output value/forest land area）×100%	16.241
森林资源利用持续性Sustainability of forest resource utilization	森林采伐压力系数Forest harvesting pressure coefficient	当年原木材产量/连续5年蓄积量差值均值 Ratio of current year timber production to mean annual forest increment	13.828

Table 2

Table 3

Main variable definitions and descriptive statistics"

变量类别 Variable category	变量名 Variable	变量定义 Variable definitions	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Min.	最大值 Max.
被解释变量 Dependent variable	森林“四库”安全 Forest “Four-Repository” security	基于指标体系利用熵值法测算所得 Calculated results based on the indicator system using the entropy method	0.114 0	0.053 6	0.018 6	0.296 2
解释变量Independent variable	森林资源保护投入 Forest protection investment	相应指标熵值法测算所得 Calculated results using the entropy method for corresponding indicators	0.140 7	0.149 1	0.022 3	0.746 3
	森林系统恢复干预 Forest system restoration intervention	相应指标熵值法测算所得 Calculated results using the entropy method for corresponding indicators	0.055 1	0.056 1	0.000 3	0.525 5
	森林资源利用持续性Sustainability of forest resource utilization	相应指标熵值法测算所得 Calculated results using the entropy method for corresponding indicators	0.092 2	0.124 5	0.000 5	0.618 8
	森林可持续管理 Forest sustainable management	相应3个维度指标熵值法测算所得 Calculated results using the entropy method for corresponding indicators	0.084 2	0.061 5	0.024 3	0.398 5
机制变量Mechanism variable	林业绿色发展韧性 Green development resilience of forestry	相应指标的熵值法加权值 Calculated results using the entropy method for corresponding indicators	0.082 5	0.062 7	0.015 3	0.470 1
机制变量Mechanism variable	森林生态系统服务价值 Forest ecosystem service value	森林面积× Σ（各项服务功能价值系数）/GDP Forest area × Σ（value coefficients of various service functions）/GDP	0.035 0	0.035 7	0.000 0	0.330 0
控制变量Control variable	城镇化率 Urbanization rate	城镇人口/总人口数量 Urban population/total population （%）	0.591 7	0.129 9	0.228 1	0.896 0
	产业结构优化 Industrial structure optimization	第三产业占比 Tertiary industry proportion （%）	0.499 4	0.088 9	0.326 6	0.837 6
	环境治理投资水平 Environmental governance investment	（环境治理投资额/地区GDP）×100% （Environmental governance investment/ regional GDP）×100%	0.012 1	0.008 7	0.001 6	0.046 3
	人口密度 Population density	人口数量/土地面积 Population/land area	0.045 6	0.069 8	0.000 3	0.392 6
	财政自由度 Fiscal autonomy index	（地方财政收入/地方财政支出）×100% （Local fiscal revenue/local fiscal expenditure）×100%	0.004 0	0.009 5	0.000 0	0.070 7
	土地利用集约度 Land use intensity coefficient	GDP/土地总面积 GDP/land area	0.738 5	0.125 8	0.194 6	0.972 0
	农业科技创新水平 Agriculture science and technology innovation	农业发明专利授权数的自然对数 Natural logarithm of authorized agricultural patents	0.404 0	0.212 1	0.173 3	1.486 8
	国家公共安全投入 National public security investment	公共安全支出/地方财政支出 Public security expenditure/local fiscal expenditure	0.016 1	0.012 9	0.006 8	0.099 0
	对外依存度 External dependence	（进出口总额/地区GDP）×100% （Import and export volume/regional GDP）×100%	0.265 7	0.278 7	0.007 6	1.463 8

Table 3

Fig.1

Fig.2

Table 4

Baseline regression results of forest sustainable management on forest “Four-Repository” security"

变量Variables	被解释变量：森林“四库”安全Dependent variables: forest “Four-Repository” security
森林可持续管理 Forest sustainable management	0.087 3^*** （0.031 1）	0.085 1^*** （0.024 2）
森林资源保护投入 Forest resource protection investment			0.095 3^** （0.036 5）	0.073 1^** （0.027 3）
森林系统恢复干预 Forest ecosystem restoration intervention					0.018 1^** （0.008 7）	0.019 3^* （0.010 2）
森林资源利用持续性 Sustainability of forest resource utilization							0.117 7^** （0.043 7）	0.144 5^*** （0.045 7）
城镇化率 Urbanization rate		0.297 5^** （0.145 2）		0.272 6^* （0.138 4）		0.302 8^* （0.154 1）		0.307 4^** （0.131 4）
产业结构优化 Industrial structure optimization		0.038 9 （0.046 2）		0.038 7 （0.046 7）		0.048 5 （0.047 8）		0.033 9 （0.044 2）
环境治理投资水平 Investments in environmental governance		0.492 1^*** （0.175 6）		0.464 3^** （0.187 6）		0.502 6^*** （0.176 4）		0.455 3^*** （0.160 8）
人口密度 Population density		?0.663 8 （0.842 5）		?0.505 7 （0.870 8）		?0.398 8 （0.816 3）		?1.107 8 （0.794 2）
财政自由度 Fiscal autonomy index		?0.063 8^* （0.035 2）		?0.065 7^* （0.037 9）		?0.062 4^* （0.033 9）		?0.053 4 （0.032 8）
土地利用集约度 Land use intensity coefficient		1.283 3^** （0.549 7）		0.869 5^* （0.512 1）		0.948 5 （0.580 9）		2.157 6^*** （0.621 9）
农业科技创新水平 Agriculture science and technology innovation		?0.065 6^* （0.036 8）		?0.065 9^* （0.037 6）		?0.072 1^* （0.037 6）		?0.050 7 （0.035 5）
国家公共安全投入 National public security investment		0.198 2 （0.291 2）		0.121 5 （0.242 4）		0.153 2 （0.300 8）		0.162 9 （0.247 4）
对外依存度 External dependence		?0.002 3 （0.026 0）		?0.002 2 （0.026 3）		?0.004 0 （0.026 6）		0.000 8 （0.025 6）
常数项 Constant	0.106 6^*** （0.004 6）	0.002 2 （0.085 5）	0.100 6^*** （0.004 6）	0.010 9 （0.088 8）	0.113 0^*** （0.000 5）	?0.005 1 （0.091 5）	0.103 1^*** （0.004 0）	?0.005 7 （0.080 6）
省份固定效应 Province fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
观测值 Observations	372	372	372	372	372	372	372	372
R²	0.939 1	0.947 4	0.940 0	0.947 3	0.937 3	0.946 0	0.941 2	0.949 9

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Table 8

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变量Variables	替换被解释变量 Replacing the dependent variable	替换回归模型 Replacing the regression model	调整研究样本 Adjusting the research sample	剔除异常值 Removing outliers
森林可持续管理 Forest sustainable management	2.482 3^** （1.350 6）	0.085 1^*** （0.023 5）	0.079 0^*** （0.023 5）	0.091 8^*** （0.026 0）
观测值Observations	372	372	336	372
R²	0.941 7	—	0.903 0	0.948 0
森林资源保护投入 Forest resource protection investment	1.775 7^* （0.923 1）	0.073 1^*** （0.026 5）	0.065 8^** （0.028 2）	0.069 8** （0.028 2）
观测值Observations	372	372	336	372
R²	0.940 7	—	0.900 5	0.947 6
森林系统恢复干预 Forest ecosystem restoration intervention	0.490 9^* （0.259 1）	0.019 3^* （0.009 9）	0.018 3^* （0.009 4）	0.070 1^* （0.036 6）
观测值Observations	372	372	336	372
R²	0.939 5	—	0.898 2	0.945 4
森林资源利用持续性 Sustainability of forest resource utilization	3.004 3^** （1.294 8）	0.144 5^*** （0.044 4）	0.135 2^*** （0.043 6）	0.142 6^*** （0.040 7）
观测值Observations	372	372	336	372
R²	0.943 2	—	0.903 7	0.950 3

变量 Variable	第一阶段 First stage	第二阶段Second stage	系统GMM
1980年降水量×林长制政策 1980 rainfall × forest chief system	1.718 5^*** （0.450 3）
森林可持续管理 Forest sustainable management		0.693 7^** （0.295 3）	0.065 5 （0.128 7）
森林“四库”安全（t-1） Forest “Four-Repository” security （t-1）			0.559 1^*** （0.179 6）
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM		4.966 （P=0.025 9）
Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F		14.608 [8.96]
AR（1）			?2.29 （P =0.022）
AR（2）			?0.78 （P =0.438）
控制变量Control variables	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定效应Province fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应Time fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes

变量 Variables	被解释变量：森林“四库”安全 Dependent variables: forest “Four-Repository” security
	功能区分组 Function zone groups			经济发展水平分组 Economic development level groups
	重点生态功能区 Key ecological function areas	农产品主产区 Major agricultural production areas	城市功能集聚区 Urban function agglomeration areas	高经济发展水平地区 High economic development regions	中经济发展水平地区 Medium economic development regions	低经济发展水平地区 Low economic development regions
森林可持续管理 Forest sustainable management	?0.010 9 （0.037 0）	0.066 9^* （0.033 7）	0.073 5 （0.060 9）	0.060 7 （0.043 0）	0.099 3^*** （0.027 1）	0.030 0 （0.036 1）
森林资源保护投入 Forest resource protection investment	?0.001 5 （0.045 2）	0.078 9^*** （0.020 0）	0.197 8^* （0.098 1）	0.191 9 （0.124 1）	0.065 8^*** （0.013 6）	0.057 0 （0.053 1）
森林系统恢复干预 Forest ecosystem restoration intervention	?0.017 0 （0.022 4）	0.014 4 （0.020 6）	?0.003 5 （0.027 7）	0.012 5 （0.018 1）	0.054 9^*** （0.011 8）	?0.001 2 （0.019 7）
森林资源利用持续性 Sustainability of forest resource utilization	0.424 7^*** （0.108 1）	0.155 4 （0.103 2）	0.057 6 （0.032 4）	0.028 7 （0.021 7）	0.387 2 （0.295 5）	0.253 8^*** （0.051 4）
控制变量 Control variables	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
常数项 Constant	?0.059 3 （0.084 7）	0.154 4 （0.341 2）	0.033 2 （0.126 3）	0.155 3 （0.155 1）	?0.075 0 （0.084 4）	0.127 3 （0.109 3）
省份固定效应 Province fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
观测值 Observations	132	144	96	120	120	132
R²	0.976 6	0.908 9	0.945 5	0.925 0	0.965 0	0.972 0

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Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Forest Sustainable Management on “Four-Repository” Security

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变量 Variable	绿色发展韧性指数 Forest resource endowment				森林生态系统服务价值 Forest resource utilization
森林可持续管理 Forest sustainable management	0.188 9^** （0.086 1）				0.434 5^** （0.181 2）
森林资源保护投入 Forest resource protection investment		0.190 3^* （0.093 6）				0.398 1^*** （0.117 4）
森林系统恢复干预 Forest ecosystem restoration intervention			0.109 8^** （0.048 7）				0.212 7^* （0.119 1）
森林资源利用持续性 Sustainability of forest resource utilization				?0.049 7 （0.110 3）				0.129 7^*** （0.024 3）
控制变量 Control variables	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
常数项 Constant	0.210 0 （0.359 8）	0.243 7 （0.344 3）	0.201 3 （0.359 7）	0.192 1 （0.358 6）	0.001 4 （0.049 9）	0.051 9 （0.074 2）	?0.022 7 （0.061 6）	?0.045 6 （0.067 7）
省份固定效应 Province fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effects	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes	是 Yes
观测值 Observations	372	372	372	372	372	372	372	372
R²	0.530 5	0.536 6	0.528 9	0.525 5	0.911 1	0.919 5	0.879 8	0.823 7