关键词: 综合预测, 木材市场, 供给与需求, 系统分析

Abstract:

By means of the principle and methodology of systems engineering, a new forecasting method——integrated forecasting method for the demand and supply of Chinese timber market is devised. On the basis of system analysis, quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis, classification forecasting and global forecasting are integrated; several forecasting models are optimally combined; multiple verification and multiple feedback are executed during the process of forecasting. Therefore, the various defects of the now available forecasting methods are overcome, so that the forecasting results become more precise and more reliable. The method of this paper is successfully applied in forecasting for the demand and supply of Chinese timber market till 2010.

Key words: Integrated forecasting, Timber market, Demand and apply, System analysis